Extended Data Fig. 6: Samples of diversity trajectories from constant birth-death simulations.
From: Loss of macroevolutionary species fitness explains the rise and fall of clades
Results from the three level hierarchical auto-regressive model testing for an effect of diversity on average speciation or extinction rates (Methods). For each clade, 100 posterior samples of diversity and average speciation and extinction rates were used to conduct the regression. Posterior probabilities for diversity dependence were estimated from 1000 posterior samples from the hierarchical model. The top row shows the global effects (β2) left for speciation in blue and right for extinction in red. Note that the 95 % Credible Interval (CI) contains 0. The bottom row shows the clade specific effects of diversity on left speciation and right extinction. Clades are shown in order of first appearance. The black vertical bars, the darker-shaded rectangles and the lighter-shaded rectangles represent, respectively, the posterior mean, the 50% CI and the 95% CI.
