Extended Data Fig. 3: Validation of fossilized birth-death diffusion (FBDD) with constant fossilization rates.
From: Loss of macroevolutionary species fitness explains the rise and fall of clades
Each row represents the results for 5 scenarios that evaluate the impact of increasing rate of fossilization, from top to bottom: ψ = 0.05, ψ = 0.1, ψ = 0.5, ψ = 1.0ψ = 2.0. For each scenario, we sampled from a range of parameter values across αλ, αμ, σλ and σμ and conducted 100 simulations with subsequent inference under the FBDD. For αλ, αμ, σλ and σμ, each of the 100 simulated (true) values are shown against the posterior median and their 95 % Credible Interval (CI) based on 1000 posterior samples. Colored diagonal solid lines show the loess fit across medians, and the dashed circumscribing ones the 95% Credible Interval (CI). Black dashed lines show the 1:1 line. For ψ, the horizontal punctuated line shows the simulated (true) value, and the medians and 95% CI are shown as points and horizontal bars, respectively. Top left percentages represent the statistical coverage. We sampled the distributions of speciation and extinction along the posterior trees and show the mean relative error for speciation λ(t) and extinction μ(t) as well as their statistical coverage.
