Fig. 4: Model trends through time (2001–2050) of GBR-wide mean values under the counterfactual and increased-management scenarios.

a–f, Variables include the number of mature groupers per hectare (far left), mean number of mature emperors per hectare (centre left), mean percentage of reefs with CoTS outbreaks (centre right) and mean percentage coral cover (far right). Each row corresponds to one scenario: Z1 (a), Z3 (b), F1 (c), M1 (d), M2 (e) and M3 (f) (Extended Data Table 2). Dashed red lines correspond to the ensemble mean of the counterfactual (H0), thin grey lines to individual runs from each scenario and black lines to the ensemble means from each scenario (20-run ensembles).