Fig. 2: Effect of individual-level variables on monthly Bd infection probability in R. darwinii individuals from two spatially structured populations in southern Chile.

a, Bd infection probability (probability of an individual transitioning from uninfected in month t to infected in month t + 1) in R. darwinii juveniles and adults. b, Bd infection probability in R. darwinii as a function of the distance to the nearest Bd-infected frog in month t. c, Relationship between the Shannon diversity index of bacterial families on the skin of R. darwinii individuals and Bd infection probability. The rug in c represents the observed values of the Shannon index. All parameters were estimated using a Bayesian sMCR model. Estimates in a and b are based on capture–recapture data from 758 R. darwinii individuals (RFC, 419; HUI, 339) and estimates in c are based on data from 397 R. darwinii individuals captured at RFC. Points or lines represent posterior means and error bars or shaded areas indicate 95% Bayesian CrIs.