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Refocusing on effectiveness over expansion in urban waste–energy–carbon development in China

Nature Energy volume 10, pages 215–225 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Recognizing the advantages of waste-to-energy (WtE) combustion over landfills, China is rapidly expanding WtE capacity nationwide to address the escalating urban waste crisis. This study compiles a comprehensive WtE facility-level database between 2000 and 2020 to examine waste–energy–carbon dynamics and improvement potential. Whereas WtE expansion has notably reduced greenhouse gas emissions and recovered energy compared with landfills, these facilities remain carbon intensive and are increasingly outperformed by coal-fired power plants within China’s electricity grid. The main challenges facing WtE are the growing plastic content in waste streams and limited advancements in energy efficiency. Given WtE’s dual role in waste management and the national grid mix, it is crucial to balance capacity expansion with carbon intensity reduction. The high-resolution database provides geographically tailored strategies based on local waste characteristics and facility performance, indicating that effective waste classification and equipment upgrades could decarbonize WtE power generation by half to natural gas levels by 2060.

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Fig. 1: Benefits of WtE approach over landfills and GHG emissions from WtE facilities in China.
Fig. 2: Spatial and temporal distribution of waste-to-carbon factor in China.
Fig. 3: Spatial and temporal distribution of waste-to-energy factor, carbon–energy coefficient and energy conversion efficiency in China.
Fig. 4: Scenario-based projections of waste intakes, GHG emissions and power output for China’s WtE facilities from 2021 to 2060.
Fig. 5: Roadmap for effective process integration from waste classification and equipment upgrades.

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Data availability

China’s Waste, Energy and Carbon Database and general profiles for China’s fossil-fired power generation are available in the Supplementary Data. China’s Waste Composition Dataset and the detailed descriptions of data, modelling and assumptions that support our findings are presented in the Methods and Supplementary Information. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The Python code for modelling the waste–energy–carbon nexus for each WtE facility from 2000 to 2020, along with scenario-based Monte-Carlo uncertainty simulations for the period 2021 to 2060, is available in the Supplementary Code.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to C. Zhou and his research team at the State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences for providing valuable data support that contributed to this research. We also acknowledge the organizations (in particular, Monash University, Chinese Academy of Sciences and China Scholarship Council) that offered financial support for this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Ben Liu, Jin Zhou & Victor W.-C. Chang

  2. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China

    Ben Liu, Peng Wang & Wei-Qiang Chen

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Peng Wang & Wei-Qiang Chen

  4. College of Design and Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

    Yang Guo

  5. Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK

    Shijun Ma

  6. Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai, China

    Jiashuo Li

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Contributions

The initial design of this study originated from P.W., whereas V.W.-C.C. and J.L. contributed further conception and expertise. B.L. performed this research and mainly conducted data collection, analysis and interpretation. S.M. facilitated data collection, whereas V.W.-C.C., J.Z., Y.G. and W.-Q.C. facilitated data analysis and interpretation. B.L., V.W.-C.C., P.W. and J.L. led the drafting of this manuscript. V.W.-C.C., P.W., J.L., B.L., J.Z., Y.G., W.-Q.C. and S.M. contributed substantially to revisions.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Peng Wang, Jiashuo Li or Victor W.-C. Chang.

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Nature Energy thanks Qunxing Huang, Nickolas J. Themelis and Lin Zhang for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information (download PDF )

Supplementary Notes 1–8, Tables 1–3 and Figs. 1–9.

Supplementary Data (download XLSX )

China’s Waste, Energy and Carbon Database and general profiles for China’s fossil-fired power generation.

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Python code for modelling the waste–energy–carbon nexus, along with scenario-based Monte-Carlo uncertainty simulations

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Liu, B., Wang, P., Zhou, J. et al. Refocusing on effectiveness over expansion in urban waste–energy–carbon development in China. Nat Energy 10, 215–225 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01683-8

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