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The role of thermostats and human behaviour in residential temperature settings in the USA

Nature Energy volume 11, pages 400–414 (2026)Cite this article

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Abstract

Thermostat management is crucial in maintaining safe indoor temperatures. Here we analyse factors that influence thermostat settings in US households during daytime and nighttime hours, with a focus on thermostat type, occupant behaviour, and socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics. Recommended indoor settings range from 64–75 °F (17.8–23.9 °C) in winter and 75–80.5 °F (23.9–26.9 °C) in summer. For context, data show average daytime thermostat settings of 70.1 °F (21.2 °C) in winter and 72.1 °F (22.3 °C) in summer. Regression results reveal households that manually adjust their thermostat or set it to a single fixed temperature maintain less-efficient temperatures than those relying on smart thermostat automation—up to 2.3 °F (1.3 °C) warmer in winter and 2.2 °F (1.2 °C) cooler in summer. Racial disparities are also evident: Black households set temperatures up to 2.2 °F (1.2 °C) higher in winter and 1.4 °F (0.78 °C) lower in summer than white households. Expanding access to smart technologies and educational initiatives related to thermostat management may improve efficiency and thermal equity.

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Fig. 1: Factors driving thermostat settings in winter.
Fig. 2: Factors driving thermostat setting in summer.
Fig. 3: Correlates of thermostat type.
Fig. 4: Correlates of thermostat control behaviour.
Fig. 5: Correlates of coping strategies.

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Data availability

Datasets related to this article are publicly available. Data were accessed on 14 March 2023 and can be accessed at https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/index.php?view=microdata, hosted at the US EIA1. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The computer code used for this study was developed in Stata 18.0 and is available upon request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank H. Lee and H. Jung for providing feedback on prior iterations of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Michelle Graff

  2. Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Destenie Nock

  3. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Destenie Nock

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  1. Michelle Graff
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  2. Destenie Nock
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Contributions

M.G. and D.N. conceived the idea, research question and methods for the project. M.G. led the analysis. M.G. and D.N. contributed to the analysis and writing.

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Correspondence to Michelle Graff.

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Graff, M., Nock, D. The role of thermostats and human behaviour in residential temperature settings in the USA. Nat Energy 11, 400–414 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01948-w

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