Fig. 1: Comparison of TCO and life-cycle GHG emissions for three vehicle technologies averaged across all African countries in the small four-wheeler segment.
From: Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040
a–c, TCO bars for each technology in model years 2025, 2030 and 2040. ICE-Syn vehicles are not shown for the year 2025 as we assume a functioning synthetic fuel market only by 2030. d–f, Waterfall charts for TCO components for all technologies in 2030. g–i, Waterfall chart for life-cycle GHG emissions for all technologies in 2030 broken into vehicle production and operation emissions. Operation emissions of fossil fuels include combustion and fuel production and supply to the pump. Operation emissions of BEVs include embedded emissions of the SOG system, which are minor. Combustion emissions of synthetic fuels are assumed to be CO2 neutral. For the life-cycle GHG emissions comparison, 225,000 lifetime kilometres are assumed for all technologies within the small four-wheeler segment. Bars in a–f show the mean country-level values weighted by motorization rate across 52 countries; error bars indicate one standard deviation. Estimates are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo draws per country. Bars in g–i show mean emissions intensities (across two SSP2 scenarios); error bars mark high–low range. Values are uniform across countries; no Monte Carlo applied. The ‘vehicle operation’ GHG emissions for ICE-Syn in i represents the life-cycle GHG emissions to produce and transport to the African continent the required amount of synthetic fuel for the assumed lifetime km travelled (Methods). CAPEX, capital expenditure; CoC, cost of capital; O&M, operation and maintenance costs.
