Abstract
Energy modelling tools guide energy transition planning, yet critical questions persist regarding their application in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These countries face the complex challenge of meeting growing energy needs in ways that are affordable, sustainable and resilient, while also advancing broader, long-term development goals in uncertain financial, geopolitical and climatic contexts. Here we highlight that innovation in modelling practice is required to adequately analyse current planning challenges and avoid the risks of misaligned policy advice. Framed through three features of modelling practice—choice of paradigm, modelling process and pluralism of expertise—we identify priority areas for methodological advancement. This means innovation across energy planning related to context-specificity, system dynamics and uncertainties, as well as integration with connected systems. To mainstream innovation, we propose a focus on ensuring data and modelling availability, prioritizing support for modelling in low-planning-capacity contexts, and expanding networks of practice that support LMIC modelling.
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Acknowledgements
The authors from UCL, Imperial College, Oxford University and Loughborough University acknowledge funding from the Climate Compatible Growth programme of the UK government. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
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S.P., M.D., P.T. and C.B. contributed to the conceptualization of the manuscript, and co-led the writing of the manuscript. P.T. and L.H. led the development of Fig. 1. M.A., H.B., M.B., G.B., D.B., J.B., J.C., L. Hatton, A. Hughes, L. Hofbauer, A. Hawkes, K.I., F.L., E.L.L.R., B.L., A.L., P.L., L.D.M., B.M., Y.M., D.A.Q., J.Q.-T., L.S.C., B.T., J.T., B.V., S.S.V. and H.W. contributed to writing and reviewing the manuscript.
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Daly, M., Pye, S., Trotter, P. et al. Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries. Nat Energy (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01962-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01962-y
