Extended Data Fig. 7: Evaluation of the mHM model (forced with E-OBS).

a-d, Simulated (mHM) against observed (GRDC) regionally averaged rank (from 0 indicating dryness, to 1 indicating wetness) of the June–August (JJA) average river discharge values relative to the period of data availability in GRDC for IPCC regions, that is (a) Northern Europe, (b) Central Europe, and (c) Southern Europe/the Mediterranean (these three regions are displayed in Extended Data Fig. 1h), and (d) Europe (box in Fig. 1a). The circled large dot indicates the year 2022 (note that 2020-2022 data is not available for Southern Europe/Mediterranean after processing the GRDC stations). e, Grid-point correlation between simulated and observed daily river discharge. f, The same as (e), but for JJA average values. g, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient computed based on simulated and observed daily river discharge (NSE has values ranging from negative infinite to 1.0, with values above 0.5 generally deemed satisfactory for discharge simulations⁷⁸). h, The same as (g), but for JJA average values. i-k, The ranking of the (i) observed and (j) simulated average values of river discharge during JJA 2022 relative to the period of data availability in GRDC, and (k) the scatterplot of such ranking across stations. Note that the data availability period in GRDC varies depending on the station.