Abstract
Iron is the primary limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth, and consequently CO2 drawdown, in the Southern Ocean. A recurring phytoplankton bloom above the Australian Antarctic Ridge was recently attributed to hydrothermally sourced iron. Here we examine satellite remote-sensing estimates of net primary production, earthquake location catalogues and Lagrangian plume modelling of particle trajectories in surface ocean currents to show that interannual variability in net primary production is related to seismicity and the advective spread of downstream surface waters. By spatially decomposing the relationship between seismicity, advective spread and net primary production, we demonstrate that net primary production at the surface, above the hydrothermal vents, can be predicted by elevated seismicity in the months before the growing season. Farther from the vents, greater advective spread reduces net primary production. We hypothesize that the connection between earthquakes and net primary production is mediated by the link between seismicity and hydrothermal emissions while advective spread controls the dilution of entrained iron; however, the physical mechanism behind the rapid surfacing of hydrothermal iron is still unknown. These findings challenge prevailing views on how geophysical processes influence ocean primary production.
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Data availability
All data used in this study can be found in the Stanford Digital Repository at https://doi.org/10.25740/yc804kn7989 (ref. 69).
Code availability
No custom code central to the conclusions of this study was developed. All analyses rely on standard statistical and arithmetic methods. The net primary production53 and Lagrangian particle modelling57 has been published elsewhere and is available from the original authors and is not redistributed here.
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Acknowledgements
We thank S. Sergi and F. D’Ovidio for their contribution to the Lagrangian plume modelling, R. Dunbar, H. Joy-Warren, C. Payne, S. Lim, M. Ardyna and M. M. Mills for their constructive comments in the early stages of investigation and D. Whitt for his support in the final phase of paper development. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grant OPP 2135184, awarded to K.R.A., and by the NASA New (Early Career) Investigator Program (NIP) in Earth Science grant 20-NIP20-0113 awarded to D. Whitt.
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C.M.S.S. was responsible for data curation, conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, visualization and writing (original draft). J-E.L.S. was responsible for conceptualization, methodology, visualization and writing (review and editing). A.L. was responsible for formal analysis, visualization and writing (reviewing and editing). G.v.D. was responsible for data curation, methodology and writing (reviewing and editing). K.R.A. was responsible for conceptualization, supervision, funding acquisition and writing (reviewing and editing).
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Annual integrated NPP (g C m−2 yr−1) from 1997 through 2008.
The positions of KR1 (south) and KR2 (north) are shown by the magenta lines10. The positions of the sACCf and sbACC are shown as white dotted lines from north to south, respectively, same as in Fig. 1 (ref. 48). The outline of the AAR bloom mask is shown in gray. 2008-2019 are shown in Extended Data Fig. 2.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Annual integrated NPP (g C m−2 yr−1) from 2008 through 2019.
The positions of KR1 (south) and KR2 (north) are shown by the magenta lines10. The position of the sACCf and sbACC are shown as white dotted lines from north to south, respectively, same as in Fig. 1 (ref. 48). The outline of the AAR bloom mask is shown in gray. 1997-2008 are shown in Extended Data Fig. 1.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Lagrangian plume for each growing season (Nov-Apr) showing water mass age in days for 1997 through 2008.
The positions of KR1 (south) and KR2 (north) are shown by the magenta lines10. The position of the pf, sACCf and sbACC are shown as white dotted lines from north to south, respectively, same as in Fig. 1 (ref. 48). The outline of the AAR bloom mask is shown in gray. 2008-2019 are shown in Extended Data Fig. 4.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Lagrangian plume for each growing season (Nov-Apr) showing water mass age in days for 2008 through 2019.
The positions of KR1 (south) and KR2 (north) are shown by the magenta lines10. The position of the pf, sACCf and sbACC are shown as white dotted lines from north to south, respectively, same as in Fig. 1 (ref. 48). The outline of the AAR bloom mask is shown in gray. 1997-2008 are shown in Extended Data Fig. 3.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Regression performance for models relating NPP to earthquake energy and plume area.
The R-squared and p-values shown here correspond to the relationships analyzed in Fig. 4. (a and c) are for the relationship between annual integrated Net Primary Production (NPP) and earthquake energy release and (b and d) are for the relationship between NPP and Lagrangian plume area. White dashed lines and magenta lines are as in Fig. 1 (refs. 10,48) and the gray outline shows the mask area used for spatial integrations of NPP.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Details of calculation of seasonally detrended daily NPP.
Daily spatially-integrated net primary production (NPP) from September 1997 through July 2018 (a). Seasonal component of daily NPP (b), and remainder component of NPP after seasonal cycle has been removed (c). The remainder component is used in the time-lagged correlation analysis in Fig. 4d.
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Schine, C.M.S., Lund Snee, JE., Lyford, A. et al. Southern Ocean net primary production influenced by seismically modulated hydrothermal iron. Nat. Geosci. 19, 106–112 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01862-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01862-6
