Abstract
Human infants are born with their eyes open and an otherwise limited motor repertoire; thus, studies measuring infant looking are commonly used to investigate the developmental origins of perception and cognition. However, scholars have long expressed concerns about the reliability and interpretation of looking behaviours. We evaluated these concerns using a pre-registered (https://osf.io/jghc3), systematic meta-analysis of 76 published and unpublished studies of infants’ early physical and psychological reasoning (total n = 1,899; 3- to 12-month-old infants; database search and call for unpublished studies conducted July to August 2022). We studied two effects in the same datasets: looking towards expected versus unexpected events (violation of expectation (VOE)) and looking towards visually familiar versus visually novel events (perceptual novelty (PN)). Most studies implemented methods to minimize the risk of bias (for example, ensuring that experimenters were naive to the conditions and reporting inter-rater reliability). There was mixed evidence about publication bias for the VOE effect. Most centrally to our research aims, we found that these two effects varied systematically—with roughly equal effect sizes (VOE, standardized mean difference 0.290 and 95% confidence interval (0.208, 0.372); PN, standardized mean difference 0.239 and 95% confidence interval (0.109, 0.369))—but independently, based on different predictors. Age predicted infants’ looking responses to unexpected events, but not visually novel events. Habituation predicted infants’ looking responses to visually novel events, but not unexpected events. From these findings, we suggest that conceptual and perceptual novelty independently influence infants’ looking behaviour.
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Data availability
All anonymized data associated with this paper are openly available at https://osf.io/b59km/ and from Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12629030)79.
Code availability
All analysis scripts associated with this paper are openly available at https://osf.io/b59km/ and from Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12629030)79.
Change history
01 November 2024
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02068-3
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Acknowledgements
Portions of the current work were included in L.K.’s 2023 MEng thesis at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We thank the researchers who contributed data to this project; J. Cetron at the Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science and M. Zettersten for statistical consultation; members of R.S.’s laboratory for helpful discussion; and the MetaLab team (https://langcog.github.io/metalab/) for their toolkit and tutorials on conducting meta-analyses on developmental data; and M. Frank and G. Raz for feedback on an earlier draft of the manuscript. We gratefully acknowledge the following funding sources: the National Institutes of Health (F32HD103363 to S.L.); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (CW3013552 to S.H.P. and L.K.); and Massachusetts Institute of Technology Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (to L.K.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.
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L.K. and S.L. planned the research in consultation with S.H.P. and R.S. L.K., S.H.P. and S.L. carried out the research. L.K. analysed the data in consultation with S.L. L.K. and S.L. wrote the original draft of the paper. R.S. and S.H.P. provided critical feedback. S.L. and L.K. revised the paper in consultation with R.S.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Procedure for estimating the PN and VOE effects.
(a) The data inputs, with the three critical trials are in bold (some experiments used habituation, listed here; others used familiarization; and all studies counterbalanced the order of the test events across infants). (b, c) The VOE and PN effects plotted against each other, (b) per study (N = 76 studies) or (c) per infant (N = 1482 infants). In (b), error bars around points indicate standard error of the mean (SE), and point size indicates sample size. In (b-c), a best fit line in blue was estimated using a linear model per trial type, and the grey ribbon around the line indicates the 95% confidence intervals.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Funnel plots for PN and VOE effects.
Each plot shows effect sizes (standardised mean differences) plotted against the precision (standard error) of each study (N = 76 studies total), for (a) the perceptual novelty effect, and (b) the violation-of-expectation effect. Black points indicate studies included in our primary analyses; white points were added by the trim-and-fill method to account for possible publication bias. See Methods for details.
Extended Data Fig. 3 The relationship between infant age and looking time for each trial type.
Each point represents the mean looking time to one trial type for one study (N = 76 studies; ‘Last habituation / familiarization’ indicates looking on the last trial before test; ‘Expected’ indicates looking on the first expected test trial; ‘Unexpected’ indicates looking on the first unexpected test trial.) Point sizes indicate sample sizes. A best fit line estimated using a linear model per trial type is shown in blue, and error bars around points and the grey ribbon around the line indicate 95% confidence intervals. These best fit lines are unweighted (do not take into account differences in the sample sizes or variances across studies).
Extended Data Fig. 4 The relationship between exposure phase and looking time for each trial type.
Each point represents the mean looking time to one trial type for one study (N = 76 studies; ‘Last habituation / familiarization’ indicates looking on the last trial before test; ‘Expected’ indicates looking on the first expected test trial; ‘Unexpected’ indicates looking on the first unexpected test trial.). Point sizes indicate sample sizes. The centre of the box indicates the median, the bounds of the box correspond to the 25th and 75th percentiles (the interquartile range, or IQR), and the whiskers extend to the minima and maxima (up to 1.5 IQRs from the 25th and 75th percentiles). Data beyond the end of the whiskers are plotted in dark grey. Quartiles are unweighted (do not account for differences in sample size or variance across studies).
Extended Data Fig. 5 Relationship between habituation rate and the PN and VOE in individual infants from habituation studies.
(a) and (b) show scatterplots of the (a) PN and (b) VOE effects in log seconds against the number of habituation trials infants saw prior to test trials (22 studies, N = 499 infants). Each point represents one infant’s PN and VOE effects. A best fit line estimated using a linear model per trial type is shown in blue, and the grey ribbon around the line indicates 95% confidence intervals.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Relationship between habituation criteria and the PN and VOE in individual infants from familiarization studies.
(a) and (b) show boxplots of the (a) PN and (b) VOE effects in log seconds, broken down by whether infants met a standard habituation criteria by the end of the familiarization phase (21 studies, N = 603 infants). The centre of the box indicates the median, the bounds of the box correspond to the 25th and 75th percentiles (the interquartile range, or IQR), and the whiskers extend to the minima and maxima (up to 1.5 IQRs from the 25th and 75th percentiles). Data beyond the end of the whiskers are plotted in dark grey.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Full PRISMA diagram for the current research.
Thirty-three papers (76 studies) were included in the final analysis. We excluded one outlier paper (2 studies) that passed our screening process due to its extremely low variance relative to the other studies, which skewed some of the supplemental meta-analytic results. Our primary conclusions hold regardless of whether this study is included; see SI for details. Template retrieved from http://www.prisma-statement.org/PRISMAStatement/FlowDiagram.
Extended Data Fig. 8 Distribution of PN and VOE effects.
Density plot over effect sizes in standard mean differences (N = 76 studies). Meta-analytic estimate of each effect with its 95% confidence interval are shown at the bottom of the plot.
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Kunin, L., Piccolo, S.H., Saxe, R. et al. Perceptual and conceptual novelty independently guide infant looking behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Nat Hum Behav 8, 2342–2356 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-01965-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-01965-x
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