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Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment

Nature volume 644, pages 621–633 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2 emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth’s climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 °C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes.

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Fig. 1: Context of the recent Antarctic sea-ice decline.
Fig. 2: Comparison of Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice changes.
Fig. 3: Observed and modelled changes in Antarctic Overturning Circulation.
Fig. 4: Indicative maps delineating Antarctic ice-sheet regions that may be vulnerable to abrupt change.
Fig. 5: Impacts of early fast-ice breakout on emperor penguin breeding are compounding in time and space.
Fig. 6: Abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment.

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Acknowledgements

This work developed from an Antarctic Extremes Workshop organised by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiatives for the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (SR200100008) and Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SR200100005), and the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (ASCI000002) funded through the Australian government. We gratefully acknowledge Discovery Project funding from the Australian Research Council (DP220100606 to T.R.V. and N.J.A.; DE210101433 to F.S.M.; DP190100494 to M.H.E.; DP250101690 to J.M.S.; DP230102994 to E.W.D., A.P. and M.H.E.; and DE250100098 to E.W.D.). P.H. acknowledges support from Australian Antarctic Science projects (AAS4496, AAS4506 and AAS4625) and funding from the International Space Science Institute (Switzerland; project 405) and Swiss Federal Research Fellowship program. R.R. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/Y001451/1). The National Computational Infrastructure supported data access and analysis in this project. The authors thank M. Flanner and A. King for data access, A. King for helpful discussions, and A. Bell, S. McCormack and R. Moorman for graphics assistance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal and Ngambri Country, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie J. Abram

  2. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal and Ngambri Country, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie J. Abram

  3. Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal and Ngambri Country, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie J. Abram

  4. Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Ariaan Purich, Felicity S. McCormack, Andrew Mackintosh & Steven L. Chown

  5. School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Kulin Nations, Victoria, Australia

    Ariaan Purich, Felicity S. McCormack & Andrew Mackintosh

  6. Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Eora Nation, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Matthew H. England

  7. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Eora Nation, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Matthew H. England

  8. Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Bindal Country, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

    Jan M. Strugnell

  9. Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, James Cook University, Bindal Country, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

    Jan M. Strugnell

  10. Environmental Futures, University of Wollongong, Dharawal Country, New South Wales, Australia

    Dana M. Bergstrom & Sharon A. Robinson

  11. Department of Zoology, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa

    Dana M. Bergstrom

  12. Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Tessa R. Vance, Petra Heil, Edward W. Doddridge & Philip W. Boyd

  13. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Tessa R. Vance, Edward W. Doddridge, Thomas J. Williams & Philip W. Boyd

  14. Australian Antarctic Division, piramina/Kingston, Tasmania, Australia

    Tessa R. Vance, Barbara Wienecke & Petra Heil

  15. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Tobias Stål, Thomas J. Williams, Anya M. Reading & Philip W. Boyd

  16. School of Natural Sciences, Physics, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Tobias Stål & Anya M. Reading

  17. Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Davos, Switzerland

    Petra Heil

  18. Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN-IPSL), Paris, France

    Jean-Baptiste Sallée

  19. Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK

    Ronja Reese

  20. Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Integrative Earth System Science, Jena, Germany

    Ricarda Winkelmann

  21. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Ricarda Winkelmann & Ann Kristin Klose

  22. Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

    Ricarda Winkelmann & Ann Kristin Klose

  23. Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, Dharawal Country, New South Wales, Australia

    Sharon A. Robinson

Authors
  1. Nerilie J. Abram
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  2. Ariaan Purich
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  3. Matthew H. England
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  4. Felicity S. McCormack
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  5. Jan M. Strugnell
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  6. Dana M. Bergstrom
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  7. Tessa R. Vance
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  8. Tobias Stål
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  9. Barbara Wienecke
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  10. Petra Heil
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  11. Edward W. Doddridge
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  12. Jean-Baptiste Sallée
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  13. Thomas J. Williams
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  14. Anya M. Reading
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  15. Andrew Mackintosh
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  16. Ronja Reese
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  17. Ricarda Winkelmann
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  18. Ann Kristin Klose
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  19. Philip W. Boyd
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  20. Steven L. Chown
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  21. Sharon A. Robinson
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Contributions

N.J.A. led the conceptualization and project management. N.J.A. and A.P. led the sea-ice team that also included P.H. and E.W.D.; M.H.E. led the ocean circulation team that also included A.P., J.B.-S. and T.J.W.; F.S.M. led the ice sheets team that also included T.S., A.M.R., A.M., R.R., R.W. and A.K.K.; J.M.S. and D.M.B. led the biology team that also included B.W., P.W.B., S.L.C. and S.A.R.; N.J.A. and T.R.V. led the implications section that also included P.H.; N.J.A., A.P., T.R.V., T.S. and B.W. produced the figures. All authors contributed to writing and reviewing the text and figures.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nerilie J. Abram.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

S.L.C. is an Honorary Life Member of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature thanks Robert Bingham, Marten Scheffer and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

is available for this paper at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1

Schematic of key components of the Antarctic environment that are discussed in this review.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Paleoclimate and historical context for recent Antarctic sea-ice change.

a, Antarctic sea-ice extent anomaly at annual resolution for satellite observations (purple)192 and a proxy assimilation-based reconstruction (orange) spanning 1700–2000 that is derived from assimilation of Southern Hemisphere ice-core and tree-ring paleoclimate records with coupled climate model simulations22 (Methods). This reconstruction is fully independent of the Fogt reconstruction (Fig. 1d,e) in its input data and methodology, and is also not trained to the observational sea-ice record. Thick curves show a 7-year loess filter of the ensemble mean annual reconstruction, orange shading shows the standard deviation of the reconstruction ensemble, and dashed brown line shows the 20th century linear trend (0.28 ± 0.04 million km2 decline from 1900 to 1999) of the sea-ice reconstruction. Both datasets are plotted relative to their 1981–2000 mean (note the reduced reference interval to calculate anomalies due to the reconstruction ending in 2000), and grey shading shows the ±3σ range of observed annual sea-ice extent anomalies over 1981–2010. Observed Antarctic annual sea-ice extent anomalies exceed –6σ relative to 1981–2010 climatology during 2023. Lower section shows the moving 7-year standard deviation of the annual sea-ice observations (purple) and reconstruction (orange), plotted at the final year of each 7-year window. b, as in a but for a Bayesian reconstruction of monthly sea-ice extent anomalies from 1899–1978 based on historical climate observations (orange)24,25. Plot shows the 1st of the 2,500 plausible reconstruction members, and all reconstruction members are considered equally likely. Across the 2,392,500 reconstructed months (957 months for 2,500 reconstruction members), only 0.52% of months have anomalies below –3σ, only 0.0016% of months have anomalies below –6σ, and only 1 month has an anomaly below the –7.3σ level which was observed in July 2023. The 20th century linear trend of the 1st ensemble member is a 0.18 ± 0.05 million km2 decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent from 1900–1999, and the median (5th to 95th percentile range) of 20th century trends across all ensemble members is a decline of 0.47 (0.01 to 0.92) million km2.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Regional reconstructions of Antarctic sea-ice maximum changes.

Annual ice-core chemistry records199,201,202 and historical observations197 (orange) that have been shown to be indicative of August-October sea-ice extent (purple) for different regions around Antarctica (Methods). Left column: Maps show the location of the proxy record (orange stars) and the longitudes over which each proxy represents sea-ice extent (purple arcs). Right column: Thick lines show 7-year loess filters of the annual data and dashed brown lines show 20th century linear trends on the reconstructions. Reconstruction regions are based on assessments of statistically significant process-based relationships199,201 and scaling of the y-axes is based on the geometric mean regression between the proxy/historical and observed datasets. These regional reconstructions have been used to estimate that the August–October maximum in sea-ice extent contracted southwards in the Bellingshausen, Weddell and Indian Ocean sectors by around 0.5° to 1.2° (or around 56 to 133 km) during the 20th century201,217. The timing of sea-ice decline is not consistent across these sectors, emphasising the regional variability of Antarctic sea ice in addition to the long-term circum-Antarctic trends. Widespread Antarctic summer sea-ice decline during the 20th century, with regional variability, has also been inferred based on shipping charts and whaling catch records218,219. Notable regional variability is also evident in the Ross Sea sector, where the Ferrigno ice core estimates a 1° northward expansion of winter sea-ice extent during the 20th Century199 (Extended Data Fig. 4).

Extended Data Fig. 4 Changing regional Antarctic sea-ice variability.

Comparison of observed maximum (August-October) sea-ice extent in the Weddell (60°W–20°E) and Ross Sea (160°E–130°W) sectors, alongside 20th century indicators of August–October sea-ice extent derived from the South Orkney fast-ice duration observations197 and the Ferrigno ice-core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) record199 (Methods). Bar direction/colour is plotted relative to the 1981–2010 mean of each record, and lines show a 7-year loess filter of the annual data. Correlation values give details of the changing relationship between sea-ice variability in the Weddell and Ross regions between the 20th and 21st centuries. Map shows sea-ice extent in September 2023 (red) compared to the 1981–2010 September median (grey). Red (grey) shading indicates regions with sea-ice extent less (more) than the 1981–2010 median. Purple arcs indicate the longitude ranges of the Weddell and Ross sea regions in the satellite sea-ice data192. Orange arcs indicate the longitude ranges where the Ferrigno ice core and South Orkney observations (stars) have a statistically significant relationship with August-October sea-ice extent199,201. The pre-satellite data add evidence to the unusual recent increase in coherence of Antarctic sea-ice anomalies between regions16,20. Ice core and historical records confirm that opposing August–October sea-ice extent variability (r = –0.18, p = 0.08 for annual reconstructions) and trends (r = –0.20, p = 0.05 for 7 y filtered reconstructions) were a persistent characteristic between the Weddell and Ross sectors throughout the 20th century199. The anticorrelation between these regional reconstructions over 1900–1999 is also evident in satellite observations of August–October sea-ice anomalies between the Weddell and Ross sea regions (r = –0.36, p = 0.10, 1979–1999). These compensating regional sea-ice anomalies have diminished through the satellite era16, and during the 21st century a significant positive relationship has now developed between August–October sea ice in the Weddell and Ross seas (r = 0.44, p = 0.03, 2000–2024). This change in regional behaviour may reflect the increasing importance of widespread ocean warming on recent Antarctic sea-ice declines this century19,20 compared to the atmospheric processes that dominated regional variability in Antarctic sea ice during the 20th century11,20,199.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Comparison of decadal trends in Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice extent.

Satellite record of annual maximum (left) and minimum (right) sea-ice extent for Antarctica (purple) and the Arctic (blue), as in Fig. 2. Thin lines (upper panels) indicate linear decadal trends calculated across the length of the satellite record, which are also plotted as moving decadal trends (lower panels) with respect to the end-year of the decadal windows. The decadal loss trends in the Antarctic sea-ice maximum (left) for windows ending from 2018 or later are more abrupt and persistent than decadal trends in the Arctic sea-ice maximum across the satellite era. For the sea-ice minimum (right), persistent decadal-scale loss has occurred in the Antarctic for all decades ending from 2017 or later, and ice loss during the decades ending in 2022 and 2023 was more abrupt than any decadal loss trends in the Antarctic sea-ice maximum during the satellite-era. However, recent decadal declines in the Antarctic sea-ice minimum are not as abrupt as the rate of ice loss for the Arctic sea-ice minimum that occurred in the decades ending between 2007 and 2012.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Arctic sea ice in climate stabilisation scenarios.

Left column: Evolution of global mean surface temperature (yellow-red curves) and Arctic sea-ice extent (light to dark blue curves) under net-zero emission scenarios run for 1000 years after branching from a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5; black curves). Net-zero scenarios were branched every 5 years from 2030 to 2060, and are plotted in progressively darker shades. Right column: Relationship between global mean surface temperature and sea-ice extent climatology (30-year moving averages) in climate stabilisation scenarios (blue curves) and SSP5-8.5 (black curves). Grey shading in the lower row indicates ice-free conditions as defined by sea-ice extent less than 1 million km2. Arctic sea-ice maximum (March) and minima (September) show strong linearity with global mean surface temperature and no long-term commitments for sea-ice decline after net-zero emissions are achieved, indicating that Arctic sea ice does not display tipping-element behaviour. Simulation data from ACCESS-ESM1.5, as described in ref. 34 (Methods).

Extended Data Fig. 7 Antarctic sea ice in climate stabilisation scenarios.

Left column: Evolution of global mean surface temperature (yellow-red curves) and Antarctic sea-ice extent (light to dark purple curves) under net-zero emission scenarios run for 1000 years after branching from a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5; black curves). Net-zero scenarios were branched every 5 years from 2030 to 2060, and are plotted in progressively darker shades. Right column: Relationship between global mean surface temperature and sea-ice extent climatology (30-year moving averages) in climate stabilisation scenarios (purple curves) and SSP5-8.5 (black curves). Grey shading in the lower row indicates ice-free conditions as defined by sea-ice extent less than 1 million km2. Antarctic sea-ice maximum (September) and minimum (March) show century to millennia-scale commitments for irreversible sea-ice loss after net-zero emissions are achieved suggestive of self-perpetuating tipping behaviour, in contrast to Arctic sea-ice behaviour (Extended Data Fig. 6). Simulation data from ACCESS-ESM1.5, as described in ref. 34 (Methods).

Extended Data Fig. 8 Compilation of the datasets of ice-sheet susceptibilities and observed changes that are shown in Fig. 4.

Left: Threshold maps used to perform a qualitative assessment of areas of susceptibility, grouped by area of impact: surface slope (BedMachine)204; buttressing (PISM)116; marine ice sheet (BedMachine)204; Pliocene reconstruction205; geothermal heat above median147; Sedimentary Basin above median likelihood206. Right: Threshold maps of various aspects of observed changes: albedo change above median amplitude207; air temperature (RACMO)208; elevation lowering (Antarctic Climate Change Initiative)209; where surface mass balance trend (2022-1979) is negative (RACMO2.3p2)208; ice flow acceleration (MEaSUREs v2)101,210; mass loss (GMB; TUD 2024)211. Lower: Indicative vulnerability derived from the product of the aggregated fields of susceptibilities and observed changes (Methods).

Extended Data Fig. 9 Priorities for improving the predictability of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment.

These include new or improved observations (blue), targeted development and application of reconstructions (purple), and incorporation of key Antarctic processes in models and coordinated evaluation of model simulations (green). Base images used to represent each Antarctic system are derived from Figs. 1, 3, 4 and 5.

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Abram, N.J., Purich, A., England, M.H. et al. Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment. Nature 644, 621–633 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5

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