Extended Data Fig. 3: Illustration of the stochastic downscaling approach using the western US as an example.
From: Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change
Historical annual average emissions in 2001–2021 from GFED4s, and projected annual emissions averaged between 2046–2055 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario at the grid level. The “static” panel shows the results derived from the static downscaling method, which applies a common ratio to the historical emission pattern to match the future projected emissions. The “stochastic” panel shows our main stochastic downscaling method, which generates the same total emissions as the static method regionally but allows for the possibility that grids that have never burned could burn. Projected emissions are first stochastically downscaled from regional emissions predictions and then averaged over 40 simulated downscaling estimates (six are shown here for the illustration purpose).
