Extended Data Fig. 4: Estimated annual excess deaths due to smoke PM2.5 using alternative exposure-response functions.
From: Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change
Panel A: results estimated using alternative smoke-mortality models (averaged over 2011–2020). In addition to our main model (grey bar), we estimate a model that uses the public mortality data from CDC WONDER, a model that additionally includes year 2020 in the regressions, a model that follows similar specification from Ma et al., 2024 (i.e. a monthly model with alternative bin specifications and 12-month moving average of smoke PM2.5 concentration), and models which calculates the number of months or the number of days in a year that fall in different smoke bins to represent different temporal aggregations. The bars show mean values of bootstrapped estimates, and the whiskers show bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals (500 bootstraps). Panel B: results estimated using published exposure-response functions that link total PM2.5 to mortality. Note the results here are estimated using lag 0 model and all-ages group, to match earlier work.
