Extended Data Fig. 8: Radiocarbon chronology and Bayesian modelling.
From: Local agricultural transition, crisis and migration in the Southern Andes
Bars underneath each distribution denote 95.4% Confidence Interval (CI). The start of Inka occupation in the region38 is included at the bottom in red. The start and end estimates are 700-670 cal BP (median 685 cal BP) and 625-585 cal BP (median 610 cal BP), respectively, with a likely duration of between 55 to 100 (median 75 years). a. Bayesian model for the migrant phase at Potrero Las Colonias. The analyses were performed including kinship data (DOD values) as prior information. The radiocarbon dates are in purple following colouring in Fig. 4b. b. Bayesian model for the migrant phase at Túmulo III. The radiocarbon dates are in green following colouring in Fig. 4b. c. Consistency of the three Bayesian models. Probability density functions for the difference (‘D’) between the start and end boundaries for the three models created (Fig. 4b). Results show that apart from the start of the migrant phase at UV and the start of the Inka occupation, there is no significant difference between the modelled outputs as the distributions include zero at 95.4% CI.
