Extended Data Fig. 8: Projected cumulative burden of ICU admissions in the U.S. for alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

In the alternative optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, R0 increased as a linear function of urban population. (a–c) Optimistic scenario. (d–f) Pessimistic scenario. a, d, Relative number of ICU admissions in each county. b, e, Number of projected ICU admissions per capita in each county. In a, b, d, and e cases have not yet been allocated to healthcare systems. c, f, Cumulative number of ICU admissions per ICU bed after cases have been allocated to healthcare systems. g, Cumulative fraction of each age class requiring ICU admission in each transmission scenario. Each of the 315 lines for each transmission scenario represents a different county. H and I Counties estimated to be in the 90% quantile of ICU admissions per capita and ICU admissions per ICU bed (after case allocation). Colors in H and I indicate whether the counties were estimated to be in the 90% quantile in the optimistic scenario, the pessimistic scenario, both, or neither. A high-resolution version of this figure is provided in the Supplementary Information.