Fig. 1: Projected deaths due to COVID-19 and malaria in Nigeria over time for different COVID-19 scenarios.
From: The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa
a, The COVID-19 epidemic and the number of people needing oxygen support per week for four different COVID-19 scenarios: an unmitigated epidemic (red), mitigation (blue), continued suppression (green) and suppression lift (purple). The thin dotted horizontal gray line indicates estimated health-care capacity for a typical African country. The thick black horizontal line beneath each figure shows the period when COVID-19 mitigation or suppression activities are assumed to be in operation. b, The assumed duration of interruption where COVID-19 interventions affect different malaria prevention activities (IRS, LLINs and SMC) or case management of clinical cases, with the level of this disruption presented in Table 2. c, The predicted deaths due to COVID-19 per week in each scenario. d, Predicted malaria deaths per week for each scenario (colored lines) and for the counter-factual where there was no COVID-19-induced disruption (black lines). The top colored lines indicate a scenario in which nets and SMC are halted and case management reduced by half (see Supplementary Table 3, row 1), whereas the bottom dashed colored lines show the most well-managed scenario (see Supplementary Table 3, row 3).
