Table 1 Policy summary
Background | The COVID-19 pandemic and the policy responses to it can affect deaths from different diseases and injuries in adverse as well as beneficial ways, above and beyond deaths in those who are infected with SARS-CoV-2. We used 16 models to make estimates of how many people would have died had the pandemic not occurred and subtracted these from the actual observed number of deaths to measure the all-cause mortality effect of the first wave of the pandemic in 21 industrialized countries in a consistent and comparable manner. |
Main Findings and Limitations | From mid-February through the end of May 2020, over 200,000 more people died in these 21 countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The total number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries, which contrasts with the widely reported male disadvantage in deaths among those with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The effect of the pandemic on total mortality was highly variable across countries. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland avoided a detectable rise in all-cause mortality, contrasting with England and Wales and Spain, followed by Italy, Scotland and Belgium, where the all-cause death toll was very high. |
Policy Implications | How the pandemic has affected all-cause mortality arises from the interactions of population and community characteristics, the immediate response to the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the public health and health and social care systems. As the pandemic continues, reducing the mortality toll requires both suppressing transmission—putting in place comprehensive and effective testing and contact tracing, timely provision of information to individuals and public health bodies, creating a sense of trust and responsibility and economic and social support to increase participation in testing, contact tracing and adherence to isolation advice—and integrated care pathways at the community and facility levels that manage COVID-19 cases and other acute and chronic conditions. |
