Extended Data Fig. 7: Composite model performance across patients, key patient subgroups, the number of symptomatic irAEs per patient, and organ system involvement.
a, Same as Fig. 4d, but applied to both bulk cohorts (n = 53 patients) using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) (Methods). b, Same as Fig. 4c, but shown for model scores determined by LOOCV. c, Performance of the composite model versus other candidate pretreatment factors for predicting severe irAE development (Methods). The composite model was trained in bulk cohort 1 (BC1) and validated in bulk cohort 2 (BC2) or vice versa, as indicated. d, Performance of the composite model trained on bulk cohort 1 for predicting severe irAEs in different patient subgroups from bulk cohort 2. DCB, durable clinical benefit; NDB, no durable clinical benefit; GI, gastrointestinal. e, Composite model scores determined by LOOCV for all bulk cohort patients treated with combination therapy (n = 24), stratified by future irAE grade: 0/1 (n = 3), 2 (n = 7), 3 (n = 12), and 4 (n = 2). f, Model performance for predicting grade 2 + , 3 + , or 4 irAE development in combination therapy patients using the scores in e. g,h, Composite model scores determined by LOOCV in both bulk cohorts (n = 53 patients) versus the number of symptomatic irAEs (grade 2 + ) per patient (g) and the number of organ system toxicities per patient (h). i, Distribution of irAEs across patients and organ systems (Supplementary Table 15). Patients from bulk cohorts 1 and 2 are organized by decreasing composite model scores determined via LOOCV (Methods). The line distinguishing high/low scores was optimized using LOOCV (Methods). j, Fraction of patients in both bulk cohorts that developed irAEs in at least 2 organ systems versus those that did not, stratified by the threshold in panel i (Methods). Significance was determined by a two-sided Fisher’s exact test. In e, g, and h, center lines, bounds of the box, and whiskers indicate medians, 1st and 3rd quartiles, and minimum and maximum values within 1.5 × IQR (interquartile range) of the box limits, respectively. Statistical significance in e, g, and h was determined by a Kruskal-Wallis test.
