Extended Data Fig. 8: Visualizing the heterogeneity in diabetes progression in Scottish patients with T2DM.

All predictions are from models with DDRTree dimensions fitted with a spline function. a. Predicted probability of insulin initiation (use of insulin for more than 6 months or a clinical requirement for insulin, indicated as two or more HbA1c reading > =8.5% more than three months apart while taking two or more oral antihyperglycaemic agents) at 5 year from the diagnosis of T2D. b. Probability of severe or referrable (R3/R4) diabetic retinopathy at 5-year period. c. Probability of incident major adverse cardiac events (identified from SMR based on ICD 9 and ICD 10 codes) at 5-year period. d. Probability of incident chronic kidney disease (eGFR < = 60 ml/min/1.73m2 on at least 2 readings which were 90 days apart) at 5-year period. All outcomes (A-D) probabilities were generated from a competing risk model constructed with the spline function of DDRTree dimensions.