Extended Data Fig. 1: Relative changes in infection per country under central sharing scenarios.
From: Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic
Country level estimates of vaccination coverage at the start of 2022 (a,d,g,j), total number of infections over 2021 relative to the current scenario with unchanged behaviour but increased vaccine sharing (b,e,h,k), and total number of infections over 2021 relative to the current scenario with adaptive behaviour and increased vaccine sharing (c,f,i,l). All results represent medians of 100 simulations with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided in Supplementary Table 3. Analogous figures for mortality estimates are given in Fig. 2.
