Extended Data Fig. 5

(a) Scatterplot showing the final C3D1 OS ctDNA model predictions (y axis) versus OS time (x axis) in the hold-back test data for IMpower150 (c-index, 0.67). Dotted lines show thresholds for mPD (≥ 0.298 prediction score), mResp (< 0.036 prediction score), and mSD (for [0.036, 0.298) prediction scores), which were thresholds chosen in the training set of data. (b) KM curves for OS in hold-back test set showing the final subgroups identified using the C3D1 OS model prediction thresholds chosen in training data. Subgroups include mPD (red line), mResp (blue line), and mSD (black line), all confirmed to have prognostic value in this test data. (c) Scatterplot showing the final C3D1 OS ctDNA model predictions (y axis) versus OS time (x axis) in the external validation OAK cohort of 73 patients (c-index, 0.69). Dotted lines show thresholds for mPD (≥ 0.298 prediction score), mResp (< 0.036 prediction score), and mSD (for [0.036, 0.298) prediction scores), which were thresholds chosen in the training set of data. (d) KM curves for OS in external validation OAK cohort of 73 patients showing the final subgroups identified using the C3D1 OS model prediction thresholds chosen in training data. Subgroups include mPD (red line), mResp (blue line), and mSD (black line), all confirmed to have prognostic value in this external validation data.