Fig. 2: Model parameter estimates and model fit of the MPXV outbreak in Portugal, April–October 2022.
From: Viral genetic clustering and transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Portugal
a, The estimated Rt using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo No-U-Turn sampling. The solid red line shows the median Rt estimates for each time point. The red band shows the 95% CrI of Rt. The horizontal black dashed line at value 1 shows the threshold for continued transmission. b, The model fit against the epidemic curve of MPXV cases by travel history data (reported during the incubation period). The solid pink line shows the estimated median of case numbers for each time point and the pink band the corresponding 95% CrI. c–e, The proportion of the MSM population estimated to be susceptible (c), infected (d) and recovered (e) from MPXV throughout the time series using an incubation period of 5.6 days and with ten infection seeds. The corresponding colored bands show the 95% CrI. MPXV case notification data (n = 865) were obtained from SINAVE. Sensitivity analyses across different priors and assumptions are shown in Supplementary Figs. 1, 2 and 3.
