Table 2 Projected 10-year impacts of Lassa vaccination
From: Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa
Outcome averted due to vaccination | Scenario 1: outbreak response only | Scenario 2: endemic districts (80%) | Scenario 3: endemic districts (80%) + non-endemic districts of high-endemic countries (5%) | Scenario 4: endemic districts (80%) + non-endemic districts of all countries (5%) | Scenario 5: endemic districts (55%) + non-endemic districts of high-endemic countries (5%) | Scenario 6: endemic districts (32.5%) + non-endemic districts of all countries (5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vaccine 70% effective only against disease | ||||||
LASV infections (n) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) |
Hospitalizations (n) | 1.6 K (1.0 K–2.4 K) | 14.1 K (9.0 K–20.3 K) | 17.3 K (11.1 K–25.0 K) | 19.9 K (12.7 K–28.8 K) | 13.4 K (8.6 K–19.4 K) | 12.5 K (7.9 K–18.1 K) |
Deaths (n) | 272.0 (89.0–576.8) | 2.3 K (771.7–4.9 K) | 2.9 K (947.3–6.0 K) | 3.3 K (1.1 K–7.0 K) | 2.2 K (734.0–4.7 K) | 2.1 K (680.7–4.4 K) |
DALYs (n) | 13.7 K (5.5 K–26.8 K) | 115.4 K (47.1 K–222.2 K) | 141.4 K (57.6 K–273.2 K) | 164.1 K (66.7 K–317.7 K) | 109.6 K (44.6 K–211.9 K) | 103.8 K (41.9 K–201.4 K) |
Impoverishing expenditures (n) | 1.2 K (725.0–1.7 K) | 10.1 K (6.5 K–14.5 K) | 12.4 K (7.9 K–17.8 K) | 14.2 K (9.0 K–20.5 K) | 9.6 K (6.1 K–13.8 K) | 8.9 K (5.6 K–12.9 K) |
Societal costs (2021 $) | 10.3 M (5.3 M–18.8 M) | 90.3 M (47.6 M–162.5 M) | 112.8 M (59.2 M–203.8 M) | 128.2 M (67.2 M–231.9 M) | 87.9 M (46.0 M–158.9 M) | 80.8 M (42.1 M–146.6 M) |
Monetized DALYs (2021 $) | 1.9 M (763.1 K–3.7 M) | 12.9 M (5.3 M–24.9 M) | 15.8 M (6.4 M–30.4 M) | 20.1 M (8.2 M–39.0 M) | 12.3 M (5.0 M–23.8 M) | 13.6 M (5.5 M–26.4 M) |
VSL (2021 $) | 105.7 M (34.6 M–224.1 M) | 948.9 M (313.2 M–2.0 B) | 1.2 B (396.6 M–2.5 B) | 1.3 B (436.8 M–2.8 B) | 939.7 M (309.4 M–2.0 B) | 826.3 M (271.1 M–1.7 B) |
Vaccine 70% effective against infection and disease | ||||||
LASV infections (n) | 200.2 K (153.5 K–250.0 K) | 1.7 M (1.3 M–2.0 M) | 2.1 M (1.6 M–2.5 M) | 2.4 M (1.9 M–2.9 M) | 1.6 M (1.3 M–2.0 M) | 1.5 M (1.2 M–1.9 M) |
Hospitalizations (n) | 2.2 K (1.4 K–3.3 K) | 18.8 K (12.0 K–27.1 K) | 23.2 K (14.8 K–33.5 K) | 26.8 K (17.0 K–38.6 K) | 18.1 K (11.6 K–26.2 K) | 17.0 K (10.8 K–24.6 K) |
Deaths (n) | 370.6 (121.3–785.9) | 3.1 K (1.0 K–6.6 K) | 3.9 K (1.3 K–8.1 K) | 4.4 K (1.5 K–9.4 K) | 3.0 K (990.8–6.3 K) | 2.8 K (924.5–6.0 K) |
DALYs (n) | 18.7 K (7.5 K–36.5 K) | 154.2 K (63.0 K–296.8 K) | 189.6 K (77.3 K–366.3 K) | 220.5 K (89.6 K–427.0 K) | 148.0 K (60.2 K–286.1 K) | 140.9 K (56.9 K–273.6 K) |
Impoverishing expenditures (n) | 1.6 K (987.8–2.3 K) | 13.5 K (8.6 K–19.4 K) | 16.6 K (10.6 K–23.9 K) | 19.1 K (12.1 K–27.6 K) | 12.9 K (8.2 K–18.6 K) | 12.1 K (7.6 K–17.5 K) |
Societal costs (2021 $) | 14.0 M (7.3 M–25.6 M) | 120.6 M (63.7 M–217.1 M) | 151.4 M (79.4 M–273.5 M) | 172.3 M (90.3 M–311.7 M) | 118.6 M (62.1 M–214.6 M) | 109.7 M (57.1 M–199.2 M) |
Monetized DALYs (2021 $) | 2.6 M (1.0 M–5.1 M) | 17.3 M (7.1 M–33.3 M) | 21.1 M (8.6 M–40.8 M) | 27.1 M (11.0 M–52.5 M) | 16.6 M (6.8 M–32.2 M) | 18.4 M (7.4 M–35.9 M) |
VSL (2021 $) | 144.1 M (47.2 M–305.4 M) | 1.3 B (418.5 M–2.7B) | 1.6 B (532.1 M–3.4 B) | 1.8 B (586.7 M–3.8 B) | 1.3 B (417.8 M–2.7 B) | 1.1 B (368.1 M–2.4 B) |
