Table 3 Projected impacts of 100 Days Mission vaccination campaigns in response to Lassa-X
From: Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa
Outcome averted due to vaccination | Vaccination scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5% of population vaccinated per year | 20% of population vaccinated per year | 40% of population vaccinated per year | ||||
160-d delay to first dose | 100-d delay to first dose | 160-d delay to first dose | 100-d delay to first dose | 160-d delay to first dose | 100-d delay to first dose | |
Vaccine 70% effective only against disease | ||||||
Lassa-X infections (n) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) | 0.0 (0.0–0.0) |
Hospitalizations (n) | 1.7 K (294.0–3.9 K) | 2.1 K (361.5–4.7 K) | 13.6 K (2.4 K–31.2 K) | 16.6 K (2.9 K–37.3 K) | 27.1 K (4.7 K–62.3 K) | 33.3 K (5.8 K–74.8 K) |
Deaths (n) | 281.2 (35.6–811.0) | 344.5 (43.9–984.0) | 2.2 K (284.6–6.5 K) | 2.8 K (350.9–7.9 K) | 4.5 K (569.2–13.0 K) | 5.5 K (704.9–15.7 K) |
DALYs (n) | 14.1 K (1.9 K–39.2 K) | 17.3 K (2.4 K–47.2 K) | 112.9 K (15.4 K–313.3 K) | 138.1 K (18.9 K–377.6 K) | 225.9 K (30.9 K–626.2 K) | 276.6 K (38.0 K–755.9 K) |
Impoverishing expenditures (n) | 1.2 K (206.2–2.7 K) | 1.4 K (255.7–3.2 K) | 9.3 K (1.6 K–21.3 K) | 11.4 K (2.0 K–25.3 K) | 18.7 K (3.3 K–42.7 K) | 22.9 K (4.1 K–50.5 K) |
Societal costs (2021 $) | 11.9 M (1.8 M–31.9 M) | 14.6 M (2.2 M–38.8 M) | 95.0 M (14.3 M–255.1 M) | 116.8 M (17.7 M–310.5 M) | 190.0 M (28.6 M–510.0 M) | 233.7 M (35.5 M–620.8 M) |
Monetized DALYs (2021 $) | 2.2 M (325.8 K–6.6 M) | 2.7 M (398.8 K–7.9 M) | 17.9 M (2.6 M–52.8 M) | 21.8 M (3.2 M–63.2 M) | 35.8 M (5.3 M–105.8 M) | 43.6 M (6.4 M–126.5 M) |
VSL (2021 $) | 109.8 M (11.3 M–346.3 M) | 135.7 M (13.8 M–420.9 M) | 878.2 M (90.6 M–2.8 B) | 1.1 B (110.3 M–3.4 B) | 1.8 B (181.6 M–5.5 B) | 2.2 B (221.7 M–6.7 B) |
Vaccine 70% effective against infection and disease | ||||||
Lassa-X infections (n) | 141.4 K (27.5 K–323.4 K) | 183.8 K (37.3 K–399.2 K) | 737.6 K (146.5 K–1.7 M) | 916.0 K (189.7 K–2.0 M) | 1.0 M (200.5 K–2.3 M) | 1.2 M (201.3 K–2.7 M) |
Hospitalizations (n) | 12.8 K (2.4 K–31.3 K) | 16.6 K (3.1 K–38.8 K) | 66.1 K (11.6 K–152.2 K) | 81.8 K (14.4 K–184.8 K) | 93.0 K (15.4 K–214.5 K) | 110.5 K (16.8 K–252.3 K) |
Deaths (n) | 2.1 K (288.7–6.3 K) | 2.7 K (380.1–7.9 K) | 11.0 K (1.4 K–31.4 K) | 13.6 K (1.6 K–38.6 K) | 15.4 K (1.8 K–44.6 K) | 18.3 K (2.0 K–53.1 K) |
DALYs (n) | 106.7 K (15.6K–304.9 K) | 138.0 K (20.6K–383.0 K) | 550.4 K (74.1K–1.5 M) | 679.1 K (90.0K–1.9 M) | 773.2 K (97.8K–2.1 M) | 916.4 K (108.0K–2.6 M) |
Impoverishing expenditures (n) | 8.8 K (1.7 K–21.9 K) | 11.4 K (2.2 K–26.9 K) | 45.5 K (8.1 K–105.0 K) | 56.2 K (10.0 K–126.9 K) | 63.8 K (10.5 K–147.3 K) | 75.9 K (11.6 K–173.4 K) |
Societal costs (2021 $) | 88.8 M (14.4 M–244.5 M) | 115.8 M (19.1 M–310.0 M) | 464.4 M (69.3 M–1.3 B) | 576.9 M (80.4 M–1.6 B) | 656.0 M (85.6 M–1.8 B) | 782.9 M (91.4 M–2.2 B) |
Monetized DALYs (2021 $) | 17.0 M (2.6 M–51.6 M) | 21.9 M (3.5 M–64.4 M) | 88.1 M (12.2 M–267.6 M) | 107.9 M (13.9 M–321.8 M) | 123.2 M (14.9 M–374.0 M) | 144.5 M (16.1 M–429.3 M) |
VSL (2021 $) | 809.8 M (95.2 M–2.6 B) | 1.1 B (126.4 M–3.3 B) | 4.3 B (423.4 M–13.8 B) | 5.4 B (482.0 M–16.9 B) | 6.1 B (518.6 M–19.7 B) | 7.3 B (557.3 M–23.5 B) |
