Fig. 1: Attack rate and vaccine efficacy estimates.

a–c, Observed and estimated attack rates of symptomatic virologically confirmed disease and hospitalizations in the phase III clinical trial by trial arm and time (a), age, serostatus and trial arm (b), and serotype, serostatus and trial arm (c). Note that the plotted resolution is lower than the data used in the model calibration. The modeled attack rates show the mean (triangle) and 95% credible interval (CrI, dashed line) of the posterior distribution (n = 20,000 samples). The observed attack rates show the mean (circle) and 95% exact binomial confidence interval (solid line). d, Estimated vaccine efficacy by serotype, serostatus and age group, against symptomatic disease and hospitalization. The solid line represents the mean of the posterior distribution, and the shaded area represents the 95%CrI of the posterior distribution (n = 20,000 samples). The dashed horizontal line marks 0 efficacy. Vaccine efficacy in multitypic individuals is shown in Supplementary Fig. 8. P, placebo arm; SN, seronegative; SP, seropositive; V, vaccine arm.