Extended Data Fig. 2: Forecast sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during the summers of 2022-2024.

a-l, Forecast summer heat-related mortality aggregated over the 654 analyzed regions as a function of the lead time for women (a-c; panels in the first row), men (d-f; panels in the second row), people aged 0-74 (g-i; panels in the third row) and 75+ years (j-l; panels in the fourth row) and for all (a, d, g, j; panels in the left column), moderate (b, e, h, k; panels in the middle column) and extreme (c, f, i, l; panels in the right column) heat days during the summers of 2022 (red), 2023 (blue) and 2024 (green). Lines and shading correspond to the average and 95% CI. Diamonds and vertical lines depict the estimated heat-related mortality and its 95% CI, respectively. Moderate temperatures refer to days with observed temperatures between region-specific minimum mortality temperature and region- and summer-specific 95th temperature centile, and extreme temperature to days above this centile. Summer refers to the period between 1 June and 30 September.