Extended Data Fig. 4: Regional distribution of AUC during the summers of 2022-2024.

a-d, Distribution of regional values of the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (AUC) for different regional subdomains at lead times 7 (solid) and 15 (dashed) days during the summers of 2022-2024 for women (a), people aged 0-74 years (b), men (c) and people aged 75+ years (d). Southern Europe here refers to all regions in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria, while Central and Northern Europe correspond to the rest of the continent. Vertical lines denote median values.