Fig. 6

Estimated dengue infected human population density in the CMC area. The red line shows the estimated results (\(\mathbf {\hat{I}}\)) (see Supplementary Material). The gray circles show the reported infected human population density values calculated from the reported patient count data obtained from the NDCU (\(\mathbf {I_{obs}}\)). Uncertainties of results at 95% level are shown by the shaded gray color bands. Forecast of dengue emergence for one upcoming season is given in the green box. The forecast was obtained in two different ways. The inner band (solid line) in the forecast shows the uncertainty of the forecast based on the end point of the estimated dengue density in the previous season. The outer band (dash line) shows the uncertainty of the forecast based on the end points of the uncertainties (lower and upper) of the dengue estimates in the previous season.