Table 4 Prediction models for incidental atrial fibrillation with self-rated health.

From: Self-rated health and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in general population

 

C-index (95% CI)*

AIC

Predictors

HR (95% CI)

P value

Model 0

0.607 (0.540–0.675)

2596.2

SRH

  
   

Fair vs. Good

1.25 (0.81–1.92)

0.314

   

Poor vs. Good

1.78 (1.18–2.70)

0.006

Model 1

0.704 (0.664–0.745)

2541.1

Age (every 10 years)

1.79 (1.46–2.20)

< 0.001

 

P < 0.001

ΔAIC = 55.1

Male sex

1.72 (1.24–2.39)

0.001

 

vs. Model 0

vs. Model 0

Urban residential area

1.92 (1.35–2.72)

< 0.001

   

Hypertension

1.60 (1.14–2.24)

0.006

   

Myocardial infarction

3.61 (1.58–8.26)

0.002

Model 2

0.714 (0.675–0.755)

2538.0

SRH

  
 

P = 0.058

ΔAIC = 3.1

Fair vs. Good

1.36 (0.88–2.09)

0.166

 

vs. Model 1

vs. Model 1

Poor vs. Good

1.76 (1.15–2.70)

0.009

   

Age (every 10 years)

1.75 (1.42–2.15)

< 0.001

   

Male sex

1.88 (1.34–2.63)

< 0.001

   

Urban residential area

1.95 (1.37–2.77)

< 0.001

   

Hypertension

1.56 (1.11–2.19)

0.010

   

Myocardial infarction

3.46 (1.51–7.92)

0.003

  1. Model 1 included age, sex, residence and education, BMI, physical activity, alcohol, smoking, eGFR, HTN, DM, dyslipidaemia, heart failure, MI, non-MI CAD, asthma, chronic lung disease, stroke, LDL cholesterol level, and CRP levels.
  2. Model 2 included covariates in Model 1 plus SRH.
  3. The models were reduced to the best-fit model using a backward variable selection procedure (criterion, P > 0.05).
  4. C-index, concordance index; CI, confidence interval; AIC, Akaike’s information criterion; HR, hazard ratio; SRH, self-rating health index; BMI, body mass index; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HTN, hypertension; DM, diabetes mellitus; CAD, coronary artery disease; MI, myocardial infarction; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; CRP, C-reactive protein.
Back to article page