Fig. 7

Prior means are recalibrated across experimental phases in the Coin Tasks. The vertical reference line x = 0 (as shown by the grey line) can be viewed as the centre of the screen when participants undertook the experiment on a laptop or computer. Datapoints on the right side of the line indicate a rightward deviation from the centre and data points on the left side of the line indicate a leftward deviation from the centre. The dotted line (x = − 0.08) represents our experimental manipulation in the training phase, which was an 8% horizontal shift of the prior (i.e., true coin location) to the left of the midline. The green dots represent the participants’ estimated prior mean across the 3 phases of training (pre, during, and post). The boxes indicated the range in which 50% of the data lies and the whiskers extend to the max/min data point within 1.5 of the interquartile range. The middle lines in the boxes correspond to the median in the distributions. The figure illustrates that participants’ prior means were initially shifted to the left with respect to the centre by the manipulation. Although there was a partial reversion towards the baseline after removal of manipulation, the prior means in the Post-Training Phase remained to be left of the baseline, suggesting the shift was retained in the Coin Estimation Task. **p < .01.