Fig. 1

Range (bars, first y-axis) and slope (line, second y-axis) for demographic metrics simulated during 1989–2018 across eight model configurations. For both panels, each x-axis label aligns with model M1 with the last data point before the next label denoting model M8. Bars denote maximum (gray) or minimum (white) deviation from each model 1989–2018 mean. Solid line conveys the 30-year slope among annual deviation values for each model and metric. Panel (a) features metrics computed for all eight models: nests; abundance of mature and immature sea turtles; and neritic survival equivalent (NSE). Dashed lines in panel (a) denote the ± 0.4 deviation in nest counts and mature females during 1989–2018⁵. Panel (b) features metrics that remained static for models M1 and M2 due to only manipulating neritic survival: maximum age of females (F) and males (M); the ratio of mature males to females (MM:MF); and the immature sex ratio (ISR) computed as the proportion female.