Table 1 Results of model selection using akaike’s information criterion for small sample sizes (AICc) 

From: Severe en route tropical weather is a predictor of morphological variation and body condition of a Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird

Model

K

AICc

Δ AICc

wi

LL

Wing chord

     

ASY wing chord (n = 359)

     

SOI

4

1761.88

0.00

0.39

−876.88

SOI + October ACE

5

1762.24

0.36

0.33

−876.03

SOI + September ACE

5

1763.92

2.05

0.14

−876.88

SOI + September ACE + October ACE

6

1764.14

2.26

0.13

−875.95

Null

3

1770.14

8.27

0.01

−882.04

October ACE

4

1771.30

9.43

0.00

−881.59

September ACE

4

1771.47

9.59

0.00

−881.36

October ACE + September ACE

5

1772.90

11.02

0.00

−881.36

ASY female wing chord (n = 99)

     

September ACE

4

456.71

0.00

0.32

−224.14

September ACE + SOI

5

458.06

1.35

0.16

−223.71

September ACE + October ACE

5

458.21

1.49

0.15

−223.78

SOI

4

459.27

2.55

0.09

−225.42

September ACE + October ACE + SOI

6

459.41

2.69

0.08

−223.25

October ACE + SOI

5

459.54

2.83

0.08

−224.45

Null

3

460.13

3.41

0.06

−226.94

October ACE

4

460.57

3.86

0.05

−226.07

ASY male wing chord (n = 252)

     

SOI

4

1154.89

0.00

0.36

−573.37

SOI + October ACE

5

1156.13

1.24

0.19

−572.95

SOI + September ACE

5

1156.97

2.08

0.13

−573.36

Null

3

1157.02

2.12

0.12

−575.46

SOI + September ACE + October ACE

6

1158.22

3.32

0.07

−572.94

October ACE

4

1158.62

3.73

0.06

−575.23

September ACE

4

1158.80

3.90

0.05

−575.32

September ACE + October ACE

5

1160.54

5.64

0.02

−575.15

SY wing chord (n = 155)

     

September ACE + October ACE

4

778.89

0.00

0.66

−385.31

September ACE + October ACE + SOI

5

780.95

2.06

0.23

−385.28

September ACE

3

784.18

5.29

0.05

−389.01

October ACE

3

785.33

6.44

0.03

−389.58

September ACE + SOI

4

786.27

7.38

0.02

−389.00

Null

2

786.27

7.72

0.01

−391.26

October ACE + SOI

4

786.68

7.78

0.01

−389.20

SOI

3

788.28

9.39

0.01

−391.06

Body Condition

     

ASY body condition (n = 349)

     

September ACE + SOI

5

1783.37

0.00

0.22

−886.60

SOI

4

1783.49

0.12

0.21

−887.69

Null

3

1783.73

0.36

0.18

−888.83

September ACE

4

1784.67

1.30

0.11

−888.28

September ACE + October ACE + SOI

6

1785.13

1.76

0.09

−886.44

October ACE + SOI

5

1785.50

2.13

0.08

−887.66

October ACE

4

1785.77

2.40

0.07

−888.83

October ACE + September ACE

5

1786.64

3.27

0.04

−888.23

ASY female body condition (n = 97)

     

September ACE

4

540.45

0.00

0.32

−266.01

Null

3

541.09

0.64

0.23

−267.42

September ACE + October ACE

5

542.52

2.06

0.11

−265.93

September ACE + SOI

5

542.53

2.07

0.11

−265.93

SOI

4

543.19

2.74

0.08

−267.38

October ACE

4

543.26

2.81

0.08

−267.41

September ACE + October ACE + SOI

6

544.60

4.15

0.04

−265.84

October ACE + SOI

5

545.41

4.96

0.03

−267.38

Female SY body condition (n = 41)

     

September ACE

3

207.58

0.00

0.32

−100.47

Null

2

208.03

0.45

0.25

−101.86

September ACE + SOI

4

209.74

2.16

0.11

−100.32

September ACE + October ACE

4

210.03

2.45

0.09

−100.46

October ACE

3

210.07

2.49

0.09

−101.71

SOI

3

210.30

2.72

0.08

−101.82

September ACE + October ACE + SOI

5

212.33

4.75

0.03

−100.31

October ACE + SOI

4

212.53

4.95

0.03

−101.71

  1. Models are ranked based on their AICc value. Shown, are the sample size of each response variable (n), the number of parameters (K), the AICc value, the ΔAICc from the highest ranked model, the Akaike weight (probability that the corresponding model is the best fit; wi), and log likelihood (LL). Data are from veeries returning to a Delaware and pennsylvania, USA, breeding site the year following annual predictor values over a 23-year period (2000–2023). Models used to draw inference are shown in bold. SY = second-year birds, ASY = after second-year birds, ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy, SOI = Southern Oscillation Index.
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