Introduction

Climate of an area is an important factor in determination of floristic distribution and abundance1. The plants are important component of any ecosystem2. It has been explored that various climatic factors have prominent effects on plants growth and flourishment (flowering and fruiting) in conjunction with plant phenology3. The impact of CC on plant phenology processes (flowering and fruiting) are recorded through month wise and seasonal ecological observation by the previous researchers4. The dynamic fluctuation in temperature, precipitation pattern, humidity, intensity of solar radiations and soil moisture content causes greater effects on time period of flowering and fruiting in wild plants5. Plants being static in nature are more vulnerable to such environmental changes as they are completely dependent on the environment for food production, growth and reproduction. External environment does exert impact on photosynthesis process and plants growth. It has been established that climate change (CC) has significantly impacted the phenology of flowering plants6.

The past studies have shown that there is direct dependence of phenological processes on the temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, intensity and soil moisture content7,8. Annual phenological cycles of plants can be altered by seasonal changes which results in delayed flowering and fruiting, ultimately culminating into yield decrease. For example, if spring arrives prior than normal routine; the trees will bloom before the hatching of their pollinators which will lead towards less or no pollination and it will cause lack of proper seed formation. With the expected population growth of humanity, there is need of more food to cope the daily food and other life necessities9. This hinges largely on maintaining healthy soil and managing agricultural areas in sustainable manner for incessant production of cereals and other needs of fruits and vegetables for human being. At the same time, there is a growing demand for biofuels and other plant-based products driven by the urgent need to replace fossil fuels and prevent greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, this urges to protect and conserve wild flora of the area to cope necessities of the indigenous communities10. According to experimental analysis on phenological events of various plant species, it is depicted that effects of changing climate are not uniformly distributed around all plant species. Some plant species showed positive effects towards changing climate while some showed negative effects for phenology parameters11,12,13. In previous studies, it was explored that species which thrive well with changing climate will have greater chance of survival and propagation. Plants will have greater abundance ratio with higher biomass, flowers/fruit production and canopy cover as compared non-compliance species of plants to dynamic climate. It has been concluded that, plants which show negative responses towards changing climate, will have lower chances of survival along with lower abundance ratio and population numbers. Such species will have shorter growth period, lesser biomass production and low yield14. Those plant species which are not capable of enduring the climatic changes are facing serious decline in their yield and distribution as it has been reported by many of the past researchers14,15. Effect of changing climate on various plant species has been recently observed by various ecologist and conservation of vulnerable plant species is highly recommended. In respective aspects, ecologist focuses on strong effective and long-lasting programs for better survival of vulnerable species and conservation of natural resources to evaluate the rich biodiversity from allied regions via multivariate analyses like comparison ordination techniques and hierarchical classification16,17.

Pakistan has rich biodiversity with more than 6000 plant taxa and she is one of those countries which are facing severe impact of climatic changes. Pakistan has rich agricultural zones that are increasingly affected by severe CC. The most prominent impacts include changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, shifts in humidity, and disruptions in biological cycles. Although some sporadic research on the effects of CC on plants has been conducted in Pakistan, no prior studies have focused on Azad Jammu and Kashmir, particularly the Bhimber District. This study is the first to explore the impact of CC on wild plants in this region. The tehsil Bhimber of AJK (Pakistan) is one of the unexplored area for analyzing the impact of CC on plants phenology and subsequent consequences for indigenous communities18,19.

The key objectives of the present study were multifaceted and included: (i) exploring the phytodiversity and population richness of wild plants in the Shiwalik Mountain Range (SMR) area of Tehsil Bhimber, (ii) identifying key climatic factors influencing plant community structure, occurrence, and distribution patterns in the SMR, (iii) analyzing the impact of climatic variations on the flowering phenology of plant diversity in the SMR, and (iv) assessing the impact of CC on forest plant diversity and richness, and its indirect effects on human life.

Materials and methods

Study area

The study area, District Bhimber of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), is a mountainous, landlocked region with rich and lush green phytodiversity (Fig. 1). Part of the area serves as a buffer zone bordering Pakistan to the south, while the northern side connects with Indian Occupied Kashmir. Its unique geographical location, and rich biocultural diversity (BCD) and biological diversity (BD) make it a particularly compelling subject for research18. This study is novel, as it is the first of its kind conducted in this region. The indigenous communities inhabiting the Shiwalik Mountain Range (SMR) zone engage in various cultural and traditional occupations such as farming, shepherding, fuelwood collection, masonry, manual labor, and herbal medicine. These communities are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Local people utilize a variety of plant species to meet daily needs, including food, fodder, forage, fuelwood, shelter, construction materials, medicine, furniture, and arts and crafts. This research aims to analyze the trends, frequency, and methods of plant use—both direct and indirect—and assess their correlation with CC.

The AJK comprises of plains, lush green valleys and high loft mountainous ranges with diverse BCD and BD20,21,22. Administratively the area of AJK is divided into ten districts and present study is conducted in one of those Districts: Bhimber which is further subdivided into three subdivisions/tehsils; tehsil Bhimber, Barnala and Samahni and the present study was planned in Tehsil Bhimber area. Tehsil Bhimber covers about 1516 km2 at 32–48 to 33–34 latitudes and 73–55 to 74–45 longitudes17,19 and is located in lap of Shiwalik mountainous range which is hub of diverse and rich BCD and phytodiversity (Fig. 1). The under study area of Shiwalik hills is extension of mountainous ranges rooting from northeastern side of Nepal, India entering in Pakistan from northern side. Average elevation of range is about 3,000 to 4,000 feet and in Pakistan it is 16 km wide, making as beautiful valley. Shiwalik mountainous are entirely covered by wide variety of flora creating a cinematic view with its significant food and other economic values. Wide variety flora is attributed by its dynamic climatic system but currently drastic climatic changes are occurring. Temperature fluctuates widely along with seasons; summers has average temperature of 45 °C; whereas winters remain colder with higher humidity level17,19. More rainfall quantity is observed during monsoon season with average range of ca. 133 mm per month. Due to dynamic temperature, rainfall and precipitation patterns makes the area an ideal environment for growth rich plant species occurrence with phytodiversity consisting of many economically valuable plants because many of those are used in life sustenance by the indigenous communities of the area16. The study area has diverse and rich ethnicity with dynamic culture and linguistic diversity making it an interesting area for study. History depicts that routes of Kashmiris are linked to ancient Indo-Ayran ethnic group “Dardic” habitants of eastern Afghan border and northern parts of Pakistan and India. The past studies revealed that population of Tehsil Bhimber areas has Punjabi, Kashmiri and Pakhtoon ethnicity which is further divided into casts: -Jat, Mirza, Malik, Rajpot, Bhati, Sheikh, Syed and Gojars and these communities speak different languages and out of those Urdu, English, Dogri, Kashmiri, Potohari and Saraikee are prevalently spoken in the area. English and Urdu are official and educational languages promulgated in whole territory of AJK20. As District Bhimber has been serving as “a gateway between Azad Kashmir and Punjab” for Mughal emperors due to which it is known as ‘Bad-e-Kashmir’. Since then plants of the study area are extensively used for medicinal, ornament, food, fodder, vegetables, wood and fuelwood purposes proving their significance for the people; however currently these plants are severely being affected due to anthropogenic and climatic changes21,22.

The study was designed and conducted during years 2019–2020 where ethnobotanical and floristic data was gathered in different months and tabulated for further analysis for its reliability and authenticity. The data with reference to climatic effects on phenological was collected for selected plant species of the area by visiting different times in SRM forest zones. Official permission (vide letter No. DOF/612/2019, dated: 04/03/2019) was obtained from the District Forest Officer (DFO) to conduct field visits in the SMR forest areas and to collect the required number of specimens with minimal or no damage to the plants of the area. To record the phenological responses of various plants to CC, the quadrat method was applied to observe current morphological and phenological parameters, which were properly documented for comparison with metadata collected from secondary sources.

Fig. 1
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Study sites of research of Tehsil Bhimber of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan.

Altitudinal transects (grids of 5 × 5 km²) were used to record plant abundance, flowering periods, and climatic effects. A total of 228 plant species were recorded across 750 sampling plots, which were analyzed following a stratified random vegetation sampling protocol. Quadrat sizes were as follows: 10 × 10 m² for trees, 5 × 5 m² for shrubs, and 1 × 1 m² for herbs, following the established protocol15, with minor modifications where necessary. Data from each quadrat were recorded in tabular form, and plant specimens were collected for herbarium preparation and deposited in the Herbarium of the Department of Botany (with code MUH) for future reference and research, following the protocols16,17. Plant identification was conducted by taxonomist Prof. Dr. M. Ishtiaq of the Department of Botany, AJ& K UoB. The identifications were later cross-checked with published floras and online resources such as the Flora of Pakistan (www.efloras.org) and the World Flora Online (https://wfoplantlist.org/).

To avoid any taxonomic errors or misclassifications related to plant ordering and placement, established protocols from previous researchers were followed to ensure the reliability of the study17,18,19. Later on, each plant specimen was mounted on the herbarium sheets bearing a proper botanical, vernacular name, family and voucher number which was submitted in herbarium of Mirpur University of Science and Technology of AJK, Pakistan. This study procedure and purpose was approved by approval of Department Ethical Committee (DEC) officially vide letter No. 112/DEC/BOT/2019; dated: 09/03/2019. The phenological response of each reported species was recorded and analyzed using the dedicated equation, as per past cited protocol20.

Species flowering phenological response

The species flowering response (SFR) in form of phenological data of wild plant species of SMR to CC was calculated on monthly basis. In present study, flowering time period was selected as representing of phenological response20,22. Following equation was used for analytical purpose:

$${\text{Species~Flowering~Response~}}\left( {\text{\% }} \right) = \frac{{{\text{Species~recorded~flowering~in~a~month~}}}}{{{\text{Total~plant~species~reported~in~study~area~}}}}{\text{~}} \times ~100$$

Here flowering period of wild plant species was observed, noted down and classified in different seasons of year such as: Spring Summer Autumn season and Winter season. The data was collected triplicate form for all the species for reliability where total 228 wild species were documented from the study area. The data of collected species was demonstrated in %age form which indicated percentage of flowering plants and data was presented in form of curve or graph which depicted the trend of response the cited plant species to CC2.

Family importance value

Family importance value wise (FIV) was calculated for each species to find out its abundance in the given area using the following Eqs.2,20.

$${\text{Family~Importance~Value}}\user2{~}\left( {\text{\% }} \right) = \frac{{{\text{Species~belonging~to~a~plant~family~}}}}{{{\text{Total~plant~species~reported~in~study~area~}}}}{\text{~}} \times {\text{~}}100$$

Climate data collection

The impact of CC on plant species of Tehsil Bhimber area was analyzed at both temporal and spatial scales. The metadata was collected using following different parameters: - maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture and solar radiations were explored and meta-data was collected for last 30 years (1990–2020) from different sources i.e. meteorological Department, library literature and online sources. The data for Environmental Prediction (US-NCEP), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was accumulated from United States National Centers by applying climate engine, (https://app.climateengine.org), climatology ministry of Pakistan and meteorological Department of Bhimber, Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The temperature data source was calculated by CFSv2 19,200 m (1/5-deg) daily reanalysis dataset (NOAA) following previous research works20–23.

Statistical analysis

Phenological response to climatic changes of each plant species was collected on each month and tabulated in Microsoft excel-sheet in binary matrix form with sequence of plant species names along month wise-seasons. The data of phenological responses of wild plants were measured and data were analyzed using R-statistical tool which provided correlation in pairs with distribution and scatterplots indices24,25. Along with this “pvclust” R-package was utilized for constructing hierarchical clusters of tree predicting correlation of various parameters of months and seasonal indices with demonstration of parameters distance; correlation, linkage and ward were calculated in dendrogram25.

Results

The phenological duration of a plant is a crucial parameter that governs the processes of flowering and fruiting (reproductive phases), which are closely linked to the unique climatic conditions of an area. Therefore, assessing the impact of climatic factors on wild flora is essential. In this study, phenological data and its correlation with CC were recorded for a total of 228 plant species belonging to 74 families (Table 1). Among these, Asteraceae was the dominant family with 24 species (10.50%), followed by Euphorbiaceae, Moraceae, Polygonaceae, and Solanaceae, each comprising 8 species (14.03%). The number of collected species and their respective percentages were calculated accordingly.

Table 1 Floristic list of plant species with flowering phenology from tehsil bhimber of Azad Jammu and kashmir, pakistan.
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Among these diverse microhabitats, hilly slopes recorded the highest number of species (65), accounting for 28.5%, followed by grasslands with 55 species (24.1%), and forests with 30 species (13.2%). The lowest numbers were recorded in marshy areas (2.6%) and mountain peaks (2.2%), respectively.

Species flowering per month

Every plant has specific vegetative and reproductive stages that are strongly influenced and regulated by external environmental and climatic factors. For this study, the reproductive phenological response of each recorded plant species was observed and analyzed. Results showed that the highest flowering activity occurred during the months of August, July, and June, with 127 species (55.7%), 126 species (55.3%), and 119 species (52.2%) respectively. In contrast, the lowest phenological responses were recorded in January and December, with 29 species (12.7%) and 31 species (13.6%) respectively (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2
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Phenological responses of each cited species from Tehsil Bhimber AJK, Pakistan.

Phenological analyses revealed that most plants completed their reproductive stages during the months of June, July, August, and September (18.89%). March and April (spring season) were also identified as important reproductive months for several wild species (7.45%). In contrast, the period from November to January was recognized as unfavorable for most plants to flower and bear fruit.

Fig. 3
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Correlation plot indicating flowering time duration of wild plants collected from Tehsil Bhimber AJK, Pakistan.

A decreasing phenological trend was recorded during the months of November (3.07%) and December (2.19%), as shown in Fig. 3. Based on the collected data and statistical analysis, it was observed that most plants exhibited reproductive phenological responses during summer (110 species; 48.24%) and the monsoon season (103 species; 45.17%). In contrast, the lowest responses were recorded in winter, with only 25 species (10.9%) showing reproductive activity, as indicated in Fig. 4.

Fig. 4
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Monthly and Seasonal Hierarchical Clustering of cited plant species from Tehsil Bhimber AJK, Pakistan (Correlation, Linkage: Ward) along with AU/BP% values based on phenological events.

To compare current flowering timings with previously reported periods, hierarchical clustering was performed using the “Pvclust” method— a multi-step, multi-scale bootstrap algorithm based on ‘au/bp’ percentages. In this context, AU stands for Approximately Unbiased p-value, and BP refers to Bootstrap Probability. Higher AU values support the null hypothesis with greater accuracy. The use of au/bp provides a standardized approach to assess confidence levels and hypothesis testing, enhanced by a two-level bootstrap algorithm26. Furthermore, a significant difference was observed between the current flowering periods of plant species and their historically reported flowering times (as per the Flora of Pakistan). To identify the underlying causes of these phenological shifts, flowering periods and durations were analyzed against six climatic parameters.

Climatic impacts on plant phenology

Pearson’s correlation test was used to assess the degree of dependence of the phenological event (flowering) on six climatic variables and their subsequent impact on fruiting. The analysis revealed that flowering phenology in all plant species was strongly correlated (r > 0.7) with all six climatic parameters: maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture, and solar radiation. Among these, temperature and rainfall had the most significant influence (Table 2). Metadata for these six parameters were collected monthly over a 30-year period (1990–2020) from relevant government departments (with official permission), as well as from published theses and research papers through literature review. The highest R-value was recorded for mean soil moisture (r = 0.62), followed by precipitation (r = 0.60), humidity (r = 0.59), solar radiation (r = 0.51), minimum temperature (r = 0.46), and maximum temperature (r = 0.39), respectively, for the study area, as shown in Fig. 4. The study confirms that CC has a significant impact on plant life, particularly flowering, fruiting, and overall growth. General plant development is increasingly hindered, often resulting in stunted forms. It was also commonly observed that crop yields vary across years, contributing to food insecurity and poverty in the region. Moreover, the wild flora of the study area has been severely affected by drastic CC. Many species have shown a decline in diversity or have been lost entirely, pushing them toward threatened or endangered status—an alarming trend that indirectly poses a severe risk to the region’s overall biodiversity, including both flora and fauna.

Table 2 Month-wise 30-Year Climatic data (with standard deviation of mean Values) for six parameters in tehsil bhimber, AJK, pakistan.
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According to P-test results, over the past 30 years, there has been an increase of approximately 2.2 °C in the annual temperature of the study area, which has had drastic and severe impacts on various wild species. The experimental analysis showed that this temperature increase was significantly correlated with changes in the flowering phenology of indigenous wild flora (228 plant species) in Tehsil Bhimber, AJK, Pakistan, thereby affecting the populations of several species in the region. Plants are highly sensitive to their external environment; even slight variations in climatic variables can alter their flowering periods. Such changes may lead to reduced or failed pollination, particularly due to the absence of anemophilous (wind-borne) pollinators, ultimately resulting in low or no fruit production and reduced yield in wild plants.

This overall phenological shift in flowering has had a substantial impact on the gross morphology, growth, and yield of plants—directly affecting both human livelihoods and the local fauna. The present study found that, over the past 30 years, the annual maximum and minimum temperatures increased by approximately 2.2 °C and 0.89 °C, respectively. Precipitation increased by up to 1.18 mm per decade, leading to a 20% rise in humidity. Soil moisture content increased by 0.52%, and solar radiation rose to 339.25 W/m² (Table 3; Fig. 5).

All these factors have had a clear and measurable impact on plant phenology and flowering patterns, severely affecting their natural propagation and contributing to a decline in plant biodiversity.

Table 3 Increase in Climatic parameters over a 30-Year period in tehsil bhimber, AJK, pakistan, with P-Values at a significance level of 0.05.
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Fig. 5
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Impact of Climate Change on the Phenological Flowering Period Based on P-Test Results, Showing Significant Correlations (r > 0.7) for All Climatic Variables in Tehsil Bhimber, AJK, Pakistan.

To evaluate the impact of changing climatic parameters on the flowering period of native flora in Tehsil Bhimber, AJK, Pakistan, data were collected and analyzed, revealing a statistically significant difference. A regression model was applied to identify changes in the flowering period of plant species. A significance level of 0.05 was used, indicating a strong relationship between flowering time and climatic variables (Fig. 6). The results showed that all climatic parameters studied had a significant effect on the flowering period of wild plants in the Shiwalik Mountain Range (SMR) of Tehsil Bhimber. A delay of approximately 5.6% in flowering days per decade was observed, attributed to changing climatic conditions. This shift in phenology has led to altered growth patterns and, ultimately, a documented decline in plant yield.

Fig. 6
Fig. 6The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
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Probability response of selected climatic variables towards phenological flowering period of plant species of tehsil Bhimber AJK Pakistan.

Phenology environment biplot analysis

Fig. 7
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Phenology–environment biplot showing monthly phenological variation (blue dots) and fitted environmental vectors (arrows). The direction of each arrow indicates the gradient of increasing environmental effect, while arrow length corresponds to the strength of correlation.

The phenology–environment biplot (Fig. 7) illustrates the relationship between monthly flowering dynamics and key environmental variables across the study period. Principal components analysis (PCA) of phenological patterns revealed distinct seasonal groupings of months along the first two ordination axes (PC1 and PC2). Environmental vectors fitted onto the ordination space indicated that Max. Temperature (25.6% explained variance), Solar Radiation (23.4%), Precipitation (23.4%), and Humidity (21.9%) were the strongest drivers of variation in flowering phenology, as confirmed by PERMANOVA (P < 0.01). Table 4 presents the results of a PERMANOVA (Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance) or a related envfit-style test (common in ecological ordination). These vectors were oriented toward mid-year months (May–August), suggesting a strong influence of thermal and solar cues during peak summer flowering. Conversely, early and late months (e.g., January, November) were associated with higher soil moisture and humidity, indicating a potential role of moisture availability in early and late-season phenological events. The clear separation of monthly clusters and the directionality of environmental vectors highlight the multifactorial nature of phenological control in this region.

Table 4 Results of PERMANOVA and environmental fitting analysis showing the contribution of selected environmental variables to phenological variation. The percentage of explained variation, pseudo-F values, and significance levels (P and adjusted P-values) are reported for each variable. Significant predictors (P < 0.01) include max. Temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity.
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Discussion

Floristic classification and its importance

The study area comprises hills, plains, and high lofty mountains of Tehsil Bhimber in District Bhimber of AJK, Pakistan. Due to its unique geographical position, the region exhibits a diverse range of floristic composition with various plant species18,19. It is worth mentioning that the area possesses rich phytodiversity, and indigenous communities primarily depend on these plant resources to meet their daily life needs. Despite its ecological richness, the study area remains largely unexplored. Its high phytodiversity (PD) and BCD further enhance its uniqueness, making it a valuable region for exploratory research, particularly in the context of CC and its impact on wild plant phenology. During the study, it was observed that Tehsil Bhimber hosts a versatile range of vegetation, species richness, and prolific flora—attributes largely attributed to the area’s geographical location. However, noticeable impacts of CC on plant life were recorded20,21,22,23. The present study was designed to explore the floristic composition of Tehsil Bhimber and to assess the influence of CC on the phenology of wild flowering plants. Phenological observations included the flowering time and duration of local wild plant species, aiming to evaluate their responses to climatic variables. In total, 228 plant species—including herbs, shrubs, and trees—belonging to 74 families were documented in an inventory format, and their correlation with CC was analyzed in relation to plant life forms. The floristic inventory revealed that the family Asteraceae represented the highest number of species (10.5%), followed by Euphorbiaceae, Moraceae, Polygonaceae, and Solanaceae (each comprising 14.03% of the total species). These findings are consistent with previous studies. Amjad et al.26, who conducted an ethnobotanical survey in the Nikyal Valley of AJK, also reported Asteraceae as the leading wild plant family in that area. Similar results were documented in a study from Muzaffarabad District, AJK20, where Asteraceae was recorded with 69 species, followed by Poaceae (57 species) and Lamiaceae (42 species). Ilyas et al.22 reported equivalent floristic trends in the Kabal Valley (Swat), where Asteraceae was again the dominant plant family with 16 species. Furthermore, Shaheen et al.15 conducted research on floristic analysis in the western Himalayan subtropical forest stands of Kashmir, with findings that align closely with those of the present study. These observations collectively support the conclusion that CC is significantly affecting plant life forms, including growth, flowering, and reproductive outputs such as seed and fruit production.

Climatic determinants of flowering phenology

CC has a clear and definite impact on the flowering phenology of wild plant species in the study area. It was observed that most plant species flowered during August (45.7%), July (35.3%), and June (32.8%), while the least flowering activity was recorded in December (2.32%) and January (2.1%). This pattern is likely due to the breaking of seed dormancy in wild flora, which tends to occur during the hot and humid conditions of the monsoon season, particularly in July and August. The flowering time duration was found to be strongly correlated with climatic parameters in the study area. Among these, maximum temperature, humidity, and solar radiation exerted strong influences on plant phenology, whereas soil moisture and minimum temperature showed moderate effects on flowering and fruiting patterns. To further explore these relationships, phenology-environment biplot was employed to examine the impact of CC on species distribution27. The analysis revealed that temperature and humidity were the most influential factors, while minimum temperature had the least effect. These findings are consistent with previous studies by Ahas and Aasa28 and Peñuelas et al.29, who reported that temperature significantly influences flowering phenology, particularly at higher altitudes. Similarly, Pearson30 found that rainfall patterns play a crucial role in determining the flowering period of plant species in the southern United States. The results regarding flowering time duration also align with the findings of Khan et al.31, who reported that August was the most favorable month for plant flowering due to stable climatic conditions.

Over the past 30 years, the maximum temperature in Tehsil Bhimber has increased by approximately 2.2 °C. This rise might have significantly influenced the flowering patterns of many native plant species. Higher daytime temperatures tend to accelerate plant metabolism and development, often leading to earlier flowering32. The observed shifts in peak flowering months—June through August—are consistent with this warming trend, highlighting maximum temperature as a major driver of phenological change. Night-time temperatures have also risen, with a recorded increase of about 0.89 °C over the same period. This gradual warming influences the breaking of dormancy and the initiation of flowering, especially in perennial and early-spring blooming species. In Bhimber, this change likely contributed to premature or shifted flowering in several taxa. Such mismatches between flowering time and pollinator activity may explain the reduced reproductive success and fruiting observed in some species32.

Rainfall in the region has shown an upward trend, increasing by approximately 1.18 mm per decade. Although seemingly minor, the timing and distribution of this rainfall have a pronounced effect on plant reproduction. In the Bhimber flora, flowering peaks were recorded during the onset of monsoon, aligning with improved soil moisture availability due to this rainfall increase. Relative humidity has increased significantly—by about 20%—in the past three decades. This rise impacts both floral longevity and reproductive health. While moderate humidity can reduce water loss and extend flower life33. It might be assumed that this dual effect likely benefited some species thriving in moist environments, while negatively impacting others more adapted to drier conditions, contributing to the observed variability in phenological responses.

Soil moisture levels have shown a slight yet meaningful increase of around 0.52% over the years. Even such modest improvement enhances water availability for root uptake, which is vital for floral initiation and development. In the study area, increased flowering was observed during the summer and early monsoon seasons—coinciding with higher soil moisture. This suggests that moisture-sensitive species, particularly herbs and shrubs, have responded positively to the increased water content in the soil. Furthermore, the increased solar radiation was observed over the period studied. While sun-loving species likely benefited from this change, shade-adapted plants may have experienced stress due to higher radiation levels, potentially leading to reduced flowering or shifts in blooming times34.

In the light of the above findings, it is predicted that summer and monsoon seasons are ideal for flourishment of plant species especially in regards of flowering because it might be due to high content formation of florigen in hot and humid periods of year35,36. Day length, temperature and humidity during these seasons facilitate the flowering of wild plant species in study area and their population is increased. Although March, April May and September also showed positive response regarding plant flowering phenological response but growth of plants in July and August seems better than former one months. Whereas, winter season was found not so appropriate for flowering phenology of cited plant species of study area but due to CC an increase of temperature winter was observed and it had been causing squeezing of the season and hence its impact was reduced. The study explored that climatic changes have drastic impact on plant life cycle affecting morphological growth and flowering time of different plant species but this effect was as accelerated due to many other allied factors such as unavailability of pollinators and temperature variation for breaking of seed dormancy37. These all is prospects are disturbing their seed formation and seed germination processes; ultimately causing low population of different plants and if biotic pressure due to man activities remains continuous then it will thrill them into rare, threatened and endangered species zones. The plants like Butea monosperma, Terminalia belerica, Melia azedarach, Moringa oleifera, Olea ferruginea, Cedrella toona, Terminalia arjuna, Otostegia limbata, Pinus roxburghii, Viola spp. Morus lavegata, Bahunia varigata and Dalbergia sissoo are being threatened due to climatic fluctuations which needs urgent measures for conservation of these and many other species which under severe pressure. The current study proves that climate changes are having severe impact on seed formation, phenology, flowering pattern, and fruiting which is one of the key factor of less population of different plants species in the study area and loss of many valuable species from the study area of Azad Jammu and Kashmir as well as from other parts of Pakistan.

The findings of this study provide a foundation for several potential developments, including the creation of a regional phenological database for climate-vulnerable species and the development of early warning systems for biodiversity loss. The data can inform climate-smart conservation planning4, such as identifying climate-resilient native species for afforestation and habitat restoration. It may also guide policy formulation for ecosystem-based adaptation strategies and support integration of phenological indicators into climate monitoring programs. Additionally, the study opens avenues for interdisciplinary research linking ecology, climatology, and socioeconomics to better understand and mitigate the broader impacts of climate change on both biodiversity and local livelihoods.

Future research should focus on long-term phenological monitoring and the integration of remote sensing tools to track shifts in flowering patterns across broader temporal and spatial scales. Genetic and ecological studies are needed to assess the adaptability of vulnerable species, along with investigations into plant–pollinator interactions affected by changing phenology. Incorporating species distribution modeling can help predict future habitat shifts under various climate scenarios. Engaging local communities through conservation awareness and sustainable resource use will be vital, as will translating findings into policy recommendations for climate-resilient afforestation and biodiversity conservation. Such efforts will support ecosystem sustainability and inform regional climate adaptation strategies.

Conclusion

It is concluded that the key driver of plant diversity loss is CC, with specific contributing factors such as rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased human activities that elevate environmental pollution. The study found that many valuable tree species in the area are being adversely affected by CC, leading to population decline and disruption of the food chain and other essential ecosystem services that support local communities. To mitigate these drastic impacts, environment-friendly technologies and eco-friendly projects should be promoted, and adaptive strategies must be developed. There is an urgent need for coordinated efforts involving both public and private sectors at national and global levels. One effective approach is the plantation of native or climate-resilient plant species, which can help reduce the effects of CC. Additionally, the significant loss of forest cover due to various factors must be addressed through appropriate reclamation measures. Promoting alternative and green energy sources for both domestic and commercial use is essential to support sustainability and reduce further environmental degradation.