Figure 1

Forward predictions of the DDE model based on the first \(\tau\) time points (training dataset). Shown are the results for the number of susceptible (S), infected (I), confined-to-bed (B), and convalescent (C) individuals, respectively. The model outcomes (non-black lines) are shown alongside the data (solid black lines). Solid non-black lines correspond to the average trajectories, while dashed lines indicate 95% credible intervals. (b–d) The results are based on the top \(M=100\) (out of \(10^5\)) simulations with the best fit in the first \(\tau\) time steps. (a) \(\tau =14\) (entire epidemic); (b) \(\tau =9\) (peaks in curves B and C reached); (c) \(\tau =6\) (only the peak in curve B reached); (d) \(\tau =5\) (neither B nor C peaks reached). For panels (b–d), RMSE values are calculated based on the testing dataset.