Figure 3

The results of the stochastic SIR model (retrospective fit). (a) Posterior distributions of the model parameters with 95% credible intervals. (b) Posterior distributions of the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) and the total attack rate AR. The posterior distributions are derived from a sample of \(10^4\) simulation runs of the stochastic SIR model, generated using the vanilla Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm with a tolerance parameter of \( \epsilon= 0.03\). Credible intervals were computed via kernel density estimation using Matlab’s mvksdensity function, with bandwidth selection determined according to Silverman’s rule of thumb..