Figure 4

Forward predictions of the stochastic SIR model for the number of susceptible (S), infected (I), confined-to-bed (B), and convalescent (C) individuals based on the first \(\tau\) time points (training dataset). Shown are the model outcomes (non-black lines) and fit to the data (solid black lines). Solid non-black lines correspond to the average trajectories, while dashed lines show 95% credible intervals. (a) \(\tau =14\) (the entire epidemic); (b) \(\tau =9\) (the peaks in curves B and C are reached); (c) \(\tau =6\) (only the peak in curve B is reached); and (d) \(\tau =6\) (the peaks in curves B and C are not reached).