Table 1 Average parameter estimates in the DDE model for different values of \(\tau\), the number of data points used. Results are shown for the initial number of immune individuals \(R_{t=0}\), the initial number of exposed individuals \(E_{t=0}\), the infectivity coefficient \(\beta _I\), the probability \(\rho _{noE}\) that infected individuals bypass the E stage, the residence times \(T_E\) and \(T_I\) in the exposed and infectious stages, respectively, and the average progression rates \(\delta\) (from B to C) and \(\epsilon\) (from C to R). The average estimates for the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) and the total attack rate AR are also included. Averages are based on \(M=100\) simulations (out of \(10^5\)) demonstrating the best fit on the first \(\tau\) time steps.

From: Model fit vs. predictive reliability: a case study of the 1978 influenza outbreak