Figure 3
Linear trends in 1975–2022 annual maximum HMP-intersecting (a) maximum sustained near-surface windspeed and (b) minimum sea-level pressure. (c) Poisson projected \(f_s'\) (Eq 3) by region (color), with range of observed historical regional TCI indicated by solid lines and out-of-sample projections indicated with dashed lines. Inverted triangle, diamond, and triangle symbols correspond to the annual maximum regional TCI projected from observed linear trends for 1970, 2010, and 2050, respectively. Yellow bars indicate maximum projected HMP-intersecting TCI for 1970 (left), 2010 (center), and 2050 (right); extrapolated from linear trends observed in the regionally aggregated data from 1975-2022 (Fig. 2a,b). Dashed vertical gray lines represent storm classification thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, with corresponding storm classification indicated as text along top of figure. (d) Values in table represent projected \(f_s'\) by region for 1970, 2010, and 2050 projected maximum annual regional TCI. Here, “MS Delta” refers to “Mississippi Delta”.
