Table 3 Predictive performance of the pcMPO-AF rule compared with the POAF, CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HATCH scores.
Model | Model discrimination | Model calibration | Reclassification | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC (95%CI) | p | Brier score | p | NRI | IDI | |
The pcMPO-AF rule | 0.886 (0.855–0.917) | -- | 0.125 (0.107–0.144) | -- | -- | -- |
The POAF Score* | 0.598 (0.545–0.652) | < 0.001 | 0.216 (0.202–0.232) | < 0.001 | −1.241 (−1.393 to −1.090) | −0.412 (−0.462 to −0.363) |
The POAF Score + pcMPO# | 0.755 (0.708–0.802) | < 0.001 | 0.178 (0.161–0.197) | < 0.001 | 0.819 (0.656–0.992) | 0.168 (0.133–0.202) |
The CHA2DS2-VASc Score* | 0.628 (0.574–0.681) | < 0.001 | 0.213 (0.197–0.229) | < 0.001 | −1.076 (−1.238 to −0.913) | −0.396 (−0.450 to −0.342) |
The CHA2DS2-VASc Score + pcMPO# | 0.788 (0.744–0.832) | < 0.001 | 0.170 (0.151–0.189) | < 0.001 | 0.851 (0.680–1.021) | 0.190 (0.154–0.227) |
HATCH Score* | 0.574 (0.520–0.629) | < 0.001 | 0.220 (0.206–0.234) | < 0.001 | −1.177 (−1.333 to −1.022) | −0.429 (−0.481 to −0.377) |
HATCH Score + pcMPO# | 0.745 (0.700–0.791) | < 0.001 | 0.185 (0.168–0.203) | < 0.001 | 0.819 (0.646–0.992) | 0.159 (0.126–0.191) |
