Introduction

Mineral resources serve as the foundational substance for human existence and progress. Copper, a vital non-ferrous metal, stands as a cornerstone material for contemporary industry and has consistently drawn global interest. The global copper resources are predominantly found in Latin America, Australia, North America, and Central Africa1,2. However, beyond these renowned regions, lies a less-explored area rich in copper mineral resource: the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), also historically referred to as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The last two decades have witnessed significant geological exploration achievements on the plateau3,4,5,6, which are garnering global interest.

The intricate geological history of the QXP, involving multiple phases of uplift and subsidence, led to the development of diverse rock types and structures, including folds, faults and various igneous and metamorphic activities, which were critical for the concentration of mineral deposits7,8. The region’s geology, therefore, presents a rich potential for mineral exploration and extraction, offering a range of resources that could contribute significantly to economic development. The geological setting of the plateau, including tectonic evolution, rock distribution and stratigraphic characteristics, provided ideal geological conditions for the formation of various metal deposits, including copper, lead-zinc, chromite, and gold ores9,10. However, the ecological environment of the plateau is characterized by high altitude and cold climate, the exploration and exploitation of these resources must be carefully managed to ensure sustainable practices that preserve the plateau’s unique and fragile ecosystem.

The copper resources of the QXP hold significant importance for meeting the country’s demand for metal mineral resources and for propelling the economic development of the region. Gaining an in-depth understanding of the plateau’s geological background and its significance for the development of copper resources is crucial for guiding the rational exploitation and utilization of mineral resources. This understanding is also vital for ensuring the security of mineral resources, offering both theoretical and practical value. Moreover, comprehending the interplay between geological settings and copper resource potential is essential for optimizing the use of these resources. It plays a dual role in not only enhancing the efficiency of mineral extraction but also in safeguarding the ecological environment. The sustainable development of copper resources on the QXP must balance economic benefits with environmental conservation to ensure long-term resource security and ecological health. Currently, our understanding of the geological characteristics and resource potential of copper deposits in the QXP is continuously deepening, but there are still certain limitations in assessing the development potential of copper resources11,12,13,14, lack of comprehensive evaluation involving ecological environment, socio-economic factors, and infrastructure construction. In addition, the majority of prior research has concentrated on examining surface and extracted deposits, neglecting the underexplored regions. This oversight has constrained a comprehensive appreciation of the copper mineral resources’ full potential within the QXP region.

In this study, we apply a pressure-state-response (PSR) model for comprehensive assessment of copper deposit development potential on the QXP. The PSR model stands as an important evaluative tool within the ecosystem health assessment, and is being widely used to assesses the relationships between human activities and the consequent states of natural resources and the environment15,16. It encapsulates the dynamic interplay among human activities, the natural environment, and economic influences17,18. The PSR model distinguishes itself by amalgamating the assessment of resource conditions, environmental challenges, and management strategies into a cohesive, comprehensive analysis. This approach not only facilitates a thorough, process-wide examination but also enables nimble adaptations to evolving scenarios across these critical dimensions19,20. With its potential for innovative refinements, the PSR model is exceptionally well-tailored for investigating the prerequisites for the sustainable development and exploitation of major metal mineral resources on the QXP, particularly in the context of contemporary challenges and opportunities.

Accordingly, the QXP region possesses significant potential for mineral resources and is expected to become an important production base for ensuring the security of domestic metal mineral resources. However, exploration and development activities must be carried out responsibly, taking into account the ecological fragility of the plateau and the need for sustainable practices to protect the environment while promoting economic growth. This research analyzes the mining conditions for the mineral resources in the region, in conjunction with the characteristics of region ecological environment, copper resource potential, infrastructures and relevant policies to assess the development potential of copper deposits on the QXP. The objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate the copper resource development potential on the QXP by using the PSR models, and (2) determine the major obstacle to copper deposit development potential. The results will not only enrich the scientific understanding of the mineral resources of the QXP but also provide a theoretical basis and technical guidance for the exploration and development of regional mineral resources. It will effectively support the sustainable economic development of the region and the protection of the ecological environment.

Study regions

The QXP is a region of distinctive geographical attributes situated in western China (Fig. 1). It covers the entirety of Qinghai Province and Xizang Province, the southern edge of Xinjiang Province, the southeastern edge of Gansu Province, the western part of Sichuan Province, and the northwestern part of Yunnan Province, with an area of about 2.5 million km2.

Geological setting

The QXP, a region of distinctive geographical attributes situated in western China (Fig. 1), stands unparalleled on the planet for its highest elevation, vast expanse, youthful geological age, and ongoing tectonic uplift. Geologically, the plateau’s formation was relatively recent, a result of the Indian Plate’s collision with the Eurasian Plate, leading to the creation of a high-altitude terrain that continues to rise7,21,22, and this process had not only shaped the plateau’s topography but also generated a variety of geological settings conducive to mineralization, providing the necessary conditions for the precipitation of copper polymetallic minerals23,24.

The tectonic framework of the region is primarily composed of six structural belts, namely the Qilian-Chaidam structural belt, Kunlun structural belt, Bayan Har structural belt, Qiangtang-Chamdo structural belt, Gangdise structural belt, and Himalayan structural belt21,25. The framework is interspersed with five major rock belts, which are the North Qilian ophiolite belt, Kunlun ophiolite belt, Longmu Co-Jinsha River suture belt, Bangong Co-Nu River ophiolite belt, and Yarlung Zangbo River ophiolite belt26,27. On the basis of the geological structure framework of the six tectonic belts and five major rock belts, three metallogenic domains and ten metallogenic provinces have been delineated23,28(Fig. 1). These tectonic belts, rock belts, and metallogenic domains constitute the unique geological characteristics of the QXP. Their formation and evolution record the geological history of the plateau, reflecting the plate activities and crustal movements during different geological periods. The unique geological setting and multi-stage tectonic activities on the QXP, including the closure of the Tethys Ocean and the Eurasia-India plate collision, significantly influenced the formation and distribution of copper deposits. The complex interplay of magmatic activity and tectonic fractures provided the necessary conditions for the precipitation of copper polymetallic minerals, making the QXP a region rich in copper mineral resources.

Over 300 copper deposits have been identified on the QXP, which collectively hold over 60 million tons of copper resources, make up over half of China’s total resources6,29. It stands as the nation’s preeminent copper production region and a pivotal reserve base for copper resources29,30. The deposits are mainly porphyry copper deposits of magmatic-hydrothermal origin, followed by volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits of submarine volcanic-hydrothermal origin, skarn deposits of magmatic-hydrothermal contact metasomatic origin, hydrothermal vein deposits formed by the filling and metasomatism of groundwater (including magmatic water), and sandstone type deposits formed through sedimentary processes. These deposits are mainly concentrated in three major copper metallogenic provinces, including the Gangdese-Nyainqentanglha, Sanjiang, and East Kunlun metallogenic provinces, primarily in the administrative regions of Xizang, Yunnan and Qinghai. The majority of copper deposits on the QXP are open-pit mines (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1
figure 1

The area of the QXP (left) and copper deposit distributions and metallogenic regions on the QXP (right).

Full size image

Ecological environment and social economy

Characterized by the high altitude and cold climate, the plateau’s ecological environment has a direct impact on the “Asian Water Tower” and the construction of China’s ecological security barrier. With a variety of vegetation from alpine meadows to forests, deserts, and swamps, the plateau hosts a rich ecological gradient and the world’s largest permafrost area outside polar regions31,32. The plateau’s ecological civilization construction is crucial for global ecological protection and for promoting sustainable development33,34. The exploitation of mineral resources on the QXP is limited by the fragile ecological environment. Despite challenges like glacier retreat and permafrost thawing, the ecological protection system is improving. Conservation has maintained stable and good environmental quality, supported by the steady development of green industries31,35.

Economically, the plateau has seen significant progress in recent decades, with a fast economic growth rate and an optimized industrial structure. However, economy lags on the QXP are also challenges to the exploitation of mineral resources. The region’s economic development is relatively low compared to other parts of the country, with an outdated industrial structure and over-reliance on agriculture and pasture husbandry36,37. There are very few cities on the plateau, resulting in a low level of urbanization. Urban areas are unevenly distributed, often developing along transportation routes, rivers, and border lines, with many areas remaining uninhabited due to poor infrastructure and lower living standards38,39. The region’s power supply is primarily hydroelectric, with thermal, geothermal, wind, and solar energy as supplements, but distribution remains uneven.

Methods

A comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PSR (pressure-state-response) model was constructed as an evaluation and analysis tool in the study of the development potential of copper deposits on the QXP (Fig. 2), providing a new perspective for scientifically evaluating the symbiotic relationship between copper mining advancement and environmental protection. The indicator weights for P, S and R layer indexes were estimated using the entropy weight method, focusing on inherent characteristics to minimize the impact of subjective biases on data analysis. Beyond the computation of PSR scores, an innovative Comprehensive Potential Evaluation Index (CPEI) was introduced to measure the copper resource utilizability and mining sustainability in a quantifiable manner. Furthermore, this study used an obstacle model to evaluate the dynamics influencing the spatial distribution of mineral resource exploitation on the QXP.

PSR framework

The PSR framework delineates the intricate relationship between human activities and the natural environment through a three-dimensional evaluative approach16,40. This model underscores the interplay between ecological environment and human activities, their repercussions on the conditions for copper mining development, and the ensuing environmental policies and stewardship initiatives, capturing the essence of a dynamic and responsive system. A total of 16 indexes are selected to construct the PSR framework, producing spatial gridded datasets (Table 1; Fig. 3). Based on the data of the QXP and the 304 copper deposits, the rationality of the PSR model index selection and weight distribution lay in its ability to accurately reflect the intrinsic conditions and needs for the development potential of copper mineral resources on the QXP, while taking into account the particularities of the plateau region, thereby promoting the harmonious coexistence of resource exploitation, ecological protection, and economic development.

Fig. 2
figure 2

Comprehensive evaluation framework.

Full size image
Table 1 Evaluation index system for PSR model.
Full size table

The indexes are composite index calculated with different factors, and they are dimensionless. Due to limitations in data availability, the most recent data for one of the indicators cannot be obtained for recent years, and the data being the most current available is employed for this particular indicator.

Fig. 3
figure 3

Normalized indexes in P, S and R layers. Detailed data descriptions are provided in Supplementary material.

Full size image

Entropy weight method

Index weights

Entropy can express the orderliness and effectiveness of information, thereby reducing the interference of human factors in determining the weight of indicators, making the results more objective and fairer, and determining the weight of indicators by comparison and selection40,42,43,44.

When setting weights, original data vary greatly in scale and units. We normalize the data to neutralize these differences. For the pressure layer, a higher normalized P value indicates greater pressure on the state. For the state layer, a higher normalized S value represents better conditions for mining development. For the response layer, a higher normalized R value signifies a more favorable situation for state. Since indicators have varying impacts on the index, they are handled individually.

For the positive index, the normalized value is calculated as follows:

$$\:{a}_{ij}=\frac{{x}_{ij}\:-\:min\left({x}_{j}\right)}{{max}\left({x}_{j}\right)\:-\:min\left({x}_{j}\right)}$$
(1)

For the negative index, the normalized value is calculated as follows:

$$\:{a}_{ij}=\frac{{max}\left({x}_{j}\right)\:-\:{x}_{ij}}{{max}\left({x}_{j}\right)\:-\:min\left({x}_{j}\right)}$$
(2)

where xij represents the original value of the grid i on the index j in layer N, max(xj) and min(xj) represents the maximum and minimum values in the grid of index j in layer N, respectively. The normalized values have a value between [0,1].

The information entropy (ej) is calculated by:

$$\:{r}_{ij}=\frac{{a}_{ij}}{{\sum\:}_{i=1}^{n}{a}_{ij}}$$
(3)
$$\:{e}_{j}=-\frac{1}{ln\left(n\right)}\sum\:_{i=1}^{n}{r}_{ij}ln\left({r}_{ij}\right)$$
(4)

where rij represents the weight of the grid i on the index j in layer N. And the final weight (wj) is determined by:

$$\:{w}_{j}=\frac{1-{e}_{j}}{{\sum\:}_{j=1}^{m}{(1-e}_{j})}$$
(5)

Based on the data of the QXP and the 304 copper deposits, the weights of indexes in each layer are independently calculated according to the entropy weight method (Table 1). The index weights in P and R layers are calculated on the scale of the entire QXP, while the index weights in S layers are calculated on the scale of deposit.

Layer score

The weighted sum model is used to aggregate the index scores to determine the comprehensive evaluation score for each layer:

$$\:{P}_{i}=\sum\:_{j=1}^{5}{w}_{{P}_{j}}\times\:{a}_{i{P}_{j}}\:,\:{S}_{i}=\sum\:_{j=1}^{6}{w}_{{S}_{j}}\times\:{a}_{i{S}_{j}}\:,\:{R}_{i}=\sum\:_{j=1}^{5}{w}_{{R}_{j}}\times\:{a}_{i{R}_{j}}$$
(6)

The P and R scores are calculated on the scale of the entire QXP. Subsequently, the corresponding P and R scores for each copper deposit are obtained based on the location of the deposit within the results. The S scores are calculated on the scale of deposit.

Comprehensive potential evaluation

In this study, we establish an innovative evaluation index, the comprehensive potential evaluation index (CPEI), which is designed to comprehensively assesses the development value and sustainability of copper deposits:

$${CPEI}_{k}\:=\:(1-{P}_{k})\times\:{S}_{k}\times\:{R}_{k}$$
(7)

where Pk, Sk and Rk represents the comprehensive evaluation scores of P, S, R layers for copper deposit k.

The CPEI integrates the three layers, quantifying the comprehensive potential of copper deposit through innovative algorithms. For P layer, the less pressure exerted by mining development activities, the higher the long-term sustainability and potential benefits are. Therefore, the calculation uses (1-P) to emphasize the importance of pressure reduction measures in enhancing the comprehensive potential evaluation score of copper deposit. The status directly reflects the current resource condition of the deposit, making S a direct indicator for comprehensive potential evaluation. The response reflects the adaptability to existing development conditions and the policy environment, making R also a direct indicator.

PSR obstacle degree model

The Obstacle degree model can be used to measure the gap between the current state and the ideal scenario, quantifying the negative contribution of pressure, state, and response factors that identify the main obstacles to optimal conditions25,40. This study applies an obstacle degree model to determine the influence degree of driving factors on a comprehensive index, with the aim of identifying the primary obstacles to the development potential of copper resources.

The ideal values for P, S and R are 0, 1 and 1, respectively. Thus, the obstacle degrees of deposit k are calculated by:

$$\:{O}_{kP}=\frac{{P}_{k}}{{P}_{k}+\left(1-{S}_{k}\right)+\left({1-R}_{k}\right)}\times\:100\%$$
(8)
$$\:{O}_{kS}=\frac{\left(1-{S}_{k}\right)}{{P}_{k}+\left(1-{S}_{k}\right)+\left({1-R}_{k}\right)}\times\:100\%$$
(9)
$$\:{O}_{kR}=\frac{\left({1-R}_{k}\right)}{{P}_{k}+\left(1-{S}_{k}\right)+\left({1-R}_{k}\right)}\times\:100\%$$
(10)

where OiP, OiS and OiR represents the obstacle degrees of the P, S and R layers, respectively.

The obstacle types are grouped according to the obstacle ratio of the three layers to determine the obstacle types of different copper deposits with decision-making process shown in Fig. 2.

Data quality assessment

When analyzing and evaluating the resource potential of copper deposits on the QXP, data quality is a critical factor influencing the conclusions’ reliability and accuracy. The data derived from various remote sensing technologies exhibit high spatial resolution. And the ecological environment, society, and economy data (P layer and R layer) all employ the most up-to-date available data. However, certain limitations persist, particularly concerning the timeliness of geological data. Most copper deposits on the QXP are not in production, and the studies on them are not consistently pursued, which results in a large time span for the data with a range of 2012–2024. Although geological survey reports, database and references for most deposits are sufficiently detailed, the complex geological conditions of exploration areas may still result in some data errors or incompleteness. To address this issue, the study conducted multiple validations of key geological data for the primary deposits, cross-checking with existing academic literature and mineral data from other regions to enhance data reliability. Methodologically, this study effectively mitigated these potential risks by optimizing data collection and processing workflows, while the model’s uncertainty analysis further validated the results’ robustness. While data quality has somewhat influenced the study’s findings, the results remain highly reliable due to rigorous data preprocessing, validation, and model optimization. Future work will further enhance the methodology with higher temporally consistent data, thereby improving the accuracy and applicability of the model.

Results

Major factors of copper deposit development potential

The pressure layer (P layer) highlights the supporting role of infrastructure in resource development. The high index weights of traffic accessibility (P3) and electric power (P5) (Table 1)indicate the importance of infrastructure development for the exploitation and development of mineral resources, reflecting that in remote and geographically complex areas like the QXP, the improvement of infrastructure is key to enhancing the efficiency of mineral resource development and reducing operational costs45,46, and the corresponding weight settings also ensure that these indexes are fully considered in the development potential assessment. In addition, the relatively low weight of habitat quality index (P1) does not imply that the habitat quality of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau’s habitats is high. Instead, it indicates that the variability in habitat quality among the copper deposits is significantly lower compared to the variability observed in other indexes. This suggests that while environmental considerations are important, the differences in environmental conditions at the deposits may be less diverse or pronounced than the differences observed in other factors such as geological features, economic policies, or infrastructure.

In the state layer (S layer), the weight of the ore deposit resource scale index (S3) is the highest, followed by the regional metallogenic condition index (S1), indicating the central role of geological surveys and resource assessments in copper mineral resource exploration and development. This matches the actual development situation of copper deposits on the QXP region, highlighting the importance of mineral resource scale and potential economic value in the evaluation system.

In the response layer (R layer), the highest weight of the economic structure (R1) indicates the significant impact of economic strategies on the exploration and development of copper mineral resources. This weight helps to evaluate and guide the adjustment of the economic structure and mining development strategy on the QXP, to promote the rational resource exploitation and the balanced development of the regional economy. This suggests that mining activities have a significant impact on the optimization of the regional economic structure and economic development47,48. Rational policy support and economic adjustments are crucial for sustainable resource development49. In addition, although the weights of environmental policy indexes (R3) and green development index (R5) are low, they still indicate the necessity to consider environmental protection and green development requirements throughout the copper mineral resource exploitation, indicating that it is essential to guarantee ecological sustainability and respond to societal needs for environmentally sound mining practices, concurrently with the pursuit of economic gains50.

In this study, the weight results of the indexes in the PSR model reflect the scientific nature of the evaluation of the development potential of copper mineral resources, ensuring that the evaluation results can truly assess the advantages and risks of resource exploitation and development, and effectively guide future resource management and policy optimization.

Evaluation of spatial pattern on PSR

Based on the weight results (Table 1) of the 16 indicators in the PSR model, a systematic evaluation of the copper mineral resources on the QSP was conducted. This evaluation revealed the comprehensive impact of natural conditions, economic and social factors, infrastructure, resource status, and development strategies on the utilizability of copper minerals in the region. The P and R scores were evaluated across the entire QXP. Following this, the specific P and R scores for each copper deposit were extracted based on the geographical positioning of the deposits within the overall results. In contrast, the S scores were evaluated at the individual deposit level, reflecting the conditions and characteristics unique to each site.

The pressure scores of copper deposits show significant spatial heterogeneity (Fig. 4). The copper deposits with high P scores are primarily concentrated in central and western Xizang, central and western Qinghai, and southern Xinjiang, while those with low P scores are mainly distributed in eastern Xizang, eastern Qinghai, western Sichuan, and northwestern Yunnan. The high P score reflects that the areas have poor ecological environment quality, unfavorable terrain conditions, and relatively incomplete infrastructure such as transportation conditions and power supply, indicating a high level of development pressure. In areas with fragile ecological environments or limited resource conditions, more attention needs to be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection, while the areas with abundant resources and more complete infrastructure can be considered as potential areas for the utilization of copper mines.

Fig. 4
figure 4

Spatial pattern of pressure (P), state (S), and response (R) scores. The circles represent the copper deposits, and their colors represent the numerical levels of the corresponding indicators for each deposit.

Full size image

The state scores of copper deposits directly reflect the resource potential of the copper deposits. Copper deposits with high S scores are relatively few and are predominantly located in the eastern and central parts of Xizang and northwestern Yunnan (Fig. 3). Copper deposits with low S scores are primarily situated at the border area between Gansu and Qinghai provinces and in the northwestern Sichuan region near the edge of the QXP. Notably, the eastern Xizang and northwestern Yunnan areas, which are also regions of concentrated low P score deposits, demonstrate good potential for development. The regional ore-forming conditions and the regional resource potentials formed during long geological processes, which are difficult to change. Therefore, for deposits that have completed exploration, under the condition that there is no significant advancement in the existing exploration and mining technology, increasing the degree of exploration may improve the resource status to some extent, but the change will not be very significant.

The distribution of response scores for copper deposits is more intricate (Fig. 3). Copper deposits with high R scores are mainly distributed in the westernmost Xinjiang region, central Xizang, and central and northwestern parts of Qinghai on the QXP, indicating that these regions have suitable policy response conditions for mineral resource development. The high R score indicates that the copper areas are more responsive in terms of economic structure, the proportion of the population employed in mining, environmental policies, mining policies, and green development index compared to other areas. This may be due to the more mature economic environment, more specialized mining labor force, more comprehensive environmental protection measures, more favorable mining policies, or a higher level of green development in these areas, which lead to favorable conditions for the sustainable development of copper resources. Copper deposits with low R scores are predominantly located in the western part of Xizang and the eastern and southwestern parts of Qinghai, where local environmental protection policies and mining policies restrict the exploitation of mineral resources.

The PSR evaluation results of 304 copper deposits on the QXP reflect the complexity and multidimensionality of regional environmental management. This situation requires decision-makers, researchers, and resource development agencies to make decisions based on accurate copper deposits data, taking into account both the self-regulation capacity of the ecosystem and the needs of economic development and society.

Copper resource development potential on the QXP

In an ideal scenario, copper deposits with low P score but high S and R scores are expected to have good development potential. However, comparing these three variables alone is difficult to accurately assess the copper deposits, hence it is very necessary to introduce the CEPI to evaluate the potential. The CEPI values of the copper deposits on the QXP were calculated based on the P, S and R scores (Fig. 5). The overall CEPI values fall within a narrow range between 0.03 and 0.032. Approximately 63% of the copper deposits exhibit a relatively low level of comprehensive potential, with their CEPI values falling below the average value of 0.053.

Only 10% of the copper deposits have a CEPI value exceeding the significant threshold of 0.10. These deposits are notably concentrated along the southern margin of the Gangdese-Nyainqentanglha metallogenic province in the south-central Xizang, as well as in the southeast segment of the Sanjiang metallogenic province in eastern Xizang and northwestern Yunnan. Among these deposits with high CEPI values, super-large copper deposits (Cu ≥ 2.5 Mt) constitute an approximate share of 13%, while large copper deposits (0.5 Mt ≤ Cu < 2.5 Mt) account for about 27% of the total. The CPEI values have strong spatial correlation with the scale of these copper deposits. These metallogenic provinces undergone long and complex geological processes, leading to a high concentration of copper resources and the formation of high-quality copper polymetallic ore deposits. However, some medium and small-scale copper deposits have CPEI values greater than some medium even large-scale copper deposits. These deposits are located around the high CPEI deposits mentioned above, once again confirming that these areas have good potential for mineral resource utilization. This also reflects the combined effect of natural conditions and development feasibility. In areas with convenient transportation, relatively stable ecological environment, and relaxed policies, even if the scale of the deposit is medium, it can still obtain a high CPEI value, which is suitable for implementing small-scale and environmentally friendly development strategies to balance the needs of resource utilization and ecological protection.

Fig. 5
figure 5

Spatial pattern of the CEPI scores for copper deposits on the QXP.

Full size image

Major obstacle to copper deposit development potential on the QXP

The spatial pattern of the PSR obstacles of copper deposits on the QXP were evaluated (Fig. 6). The copper deposits with high P obstacle degree are notably concentrated in the central and western Xizang, northern and western Qinghai, and the southwestern part of Xinjiang. The high S obstacle degree copper deposits are particularly concentrated in northwestern Yunnan, and eastern Qinghai. The deposits with high R obstacle degree are chiefly situated in the northwestern Yunnan, eastern Qinghai, central Xizang, and the junction area between Xizang and Sichuan. These results provide a clear spatial distribution of the obstacle degrees across different regions of the QXP, indicating areas that may require more focused attention and strategic planning for the sustainable development of copper mining activities.

Fig. 6
figure 6

Spatial pattern of the obstacle degrees for copper deposits on the QXP. The circles represent the copper deposits, and their colors represent the numerical levels of the corresponding indicators for each deposit.

Full size image

The potential obstacles to copper deposit development potential play important roles in formulating targeted mineral resource exploitation and utilization policies to enhance economic development while maintaining sustainable economic and social development. Seven obstacle types are classified with decision-making process shown in Fig. 2, providing a direct assessment of the relative influence of pressure, state, response on the development potential of copper deposits on the QXP (Fig. 7).

The balanced type is the most common obstacle type and indicates that the obstacle degrees of P, S and R are relatively balanced, with no particularly prominent layers. The balance type is the most common type on the QXP. The copper deposits of this type, accounting for 36% of the total number of copper deposits on the QXP, are main distributed in central Xizang, and southwestern part of Xinjiang. These deposits are mainly small-scale, often with large and close P, S and R obstacle degree values, which result in poor development potential.

Fig. 7
figure 7

Spatial pattern of the obstacle types for copper deposits on the QXP.

Full size image

The P dominated obstacle type indicates that the development potential of copper deposits is primarily influenced by external pressures. This do not necessarily mean that the natural environment is fragile, the terrain is complex, or the infrastructure is inadequate, but rather that the obstacle to copper deposit development potential from pressures is greater compared to the state and response measures. The copper deposits of this type are mainly distributed in central Xizang, accounting for 2% of the total number of copper deposits on the QXP.

The S dominated obstacle type suggests that the copper deposits is mainly affected by geological conditions or the resources themselves. Most of these deposits have smaller scale of copper resource. Some large copper deposits are also of the S dominant obstacle type, indicating that pressure and response in these areas have a relatively smaller impact on the development potential of copper deposits. The copper deposits of this type are primarily located in central Xizang, central and northern Qinghai, the border area between Xizang and Sichuan, and eastern Sichuan, accounting 20% of the total number of copper deposits.

The R dominated obstacle type indicates that these copper deposits are mainly influenced by response, which is probably related to local socio-economic conditions or policy environment constraints. These deposits have good resource potential and external pressure conditions, making response the most significant obstacle. The copper deposits of this type are mainly distributed in the border area among Xizang, Yunnan and Sichuan, accounting for 5%.

The dual-layer dominated types show that the impacts of indexes from two layers on the development potential of the copper deposits are close and significantly greater than the indexes from the rest layer. Among them, the copper deposits of P-S and P-R dominated types are relatively few, accounting for 9% and 4% of the total number of copper deposits on the QXP, respectively. In contrast, the copper deposits of S-R dominated type account for 24%, mostly medium-sized copper resource scale, and mainly concentrated in eastern Xizang and northwestern Yunnan.

By integrating P, S and R layers, and selecting some deposits as case studies, this study discussed the importance of understanding the interactions between these layers when assessing the overall development potential for copper deposits on the QXP.

The copper deposits such as Pulang, Yulong, Jiama, Qulong, Xiongcun, Zhuno, and Duobuzha are all super-large copper deposits with exceptionally high resource potential. However, these deposits are of various obstacle types (Fig. 7). The Pulang copper deposit is situated in the northwest of Yunnan, the region has superior ecological environment conditions and relatively complete infrastructure construction, which result in a comparatively low level of development pressure (P). Conversely, the R layer, particularly stringent environmental policies, emerges as the predominant influence on copper resource development. These policies escalate the costs and complexities associated with mining operations, thereby presenting an P obstacle type. The Qulong and Jiama copper deposits in central Xizang are situated in areas with more fragile ecological conditions and less developed infrastructure. Although their R layers are relatively weaker compared to Yunnan, they have relatively little impact on resource development compared with their own P layers, so they present the P obstacle type. Regarding the Xiongcun, Zhuno, and Duobuzha copper deposits, despite possess favorable geological conditions. They face significant development pressure, and their R layers also have resistance to resource development. Both factors exert a considerable influence on resource development, leading to a composite obstacle type of P-R.

It is evident that it is not the absolute value of a single layer that determines the type and potential of a copper deposit, but rather a holistic assessment that takes into account the relative relationships between the three layers. This reference case illustrates how the PSR framework can be effectively applied to evaluate copper resource development potential and underscores the interconnectedness of the three layers. These findings emphasize the necessity of adopting a holistic approach in mineral resource assessment, effectively capturing the complexity and interplay between different indicators across multiple layers. Geological conditions, as well as socio-economic and environmental factors, must be carefully considered to provide a more comprehensive and accurate assessment of the copper deposit development potential on the QXP.

Discussion

It’s evident that geological characteristics and ore-forming mechanisms play significant roles in the development potential of copper resources on the QXP. The Qinling-Qilian-Kunlun metallogenic domain, situated on the northern edge of the QXP, is characterized by a close relationship between tectonic evolution and magmatic activity. This region experienced multiple magmatic activities, leading to the formation of porphyry and low-sulfidation epithermal polymetallic copper deposits associated with magmatic rocks51. The northward paleo-Tethys Ocean subducting collision resulted in the formation of a substantial amount of pegmatite and super-large rare metal deposits23. The Qiangtang-Sanjiang metallogenic domain was a product of the paleo-Tethys Ocean evolution, where a series of highly enriched copper-gold deposits had been discovered48. The Gangdese-Himalaya metallogenic domain undergone complex tectonic evolution processes, including collision orogeny, magmatic activity, and sedimentation, leading to the formation of various types of copper deposits, such as porphyry copper and high-sulfidation epithermal copper-gold deposits52,53.

The geological characteristics and copper mineral potentials vary across the ten metallogenic provinces. Although the Qinling-Qilian-Kunlun metallogenic domain is rich in copper deposits and has a good amount of copper resources, the development potential of the copper deposits remains limited (Fig. 5). The central southern margin of the southeast segment of the Sanjiang metallogenic province and Gangdese-Nyainqentanglha metallogenic province have the greatest potential for copper utilization, as the high CPEI value deposits are concentrated in these areas. These areas are also considered to have the most favorable conditions for copper resource exploitation. However, in these metallogenic provinces, the copper deposit development potential also varies significantly across different regions due to a variety of factors that influenced the accessibility, economic viability, and environmental impact of mining operations. For the copper deposits of P dominated obstacle type, careful environmental consideration is imperative during exploitation to ensure that ecological impacts were meticulously managed and mitigated. The copper deposits of S dominated obstacle type are constrained by current exploration technology, indicating a pressing need for technological advancements to trap their full potential. Meanwhile, copper deposits of R dominated obstacle, typically found in areas with well-developed infrastructure and conducive mineral conditions, require focus on policy and technological innovation support, given the favorable basic infrastructure and mineral conditions. In these regions, there is a clear emphasis on refining policies and fostering technological innovation to leverage the strong existing infrastructure and the promising state of mineral resources.

Integrating the results of the CEPI and the obstacle types can offer additional evaluative insights into the development potential of copper resources on the QXP (Fig. 8). Overall, copper deposits with high CPEI values (> 0.2) are primarily of R, P, and P-R dominated obstacle types. Deposits with moderately high CPEI values are mainly categorized as P-R and P-S dominated types. In contrast, copper deposits of the S dominated obstacle type exhibit CPEI values almost entirely below 0.10. Furthermore, the balance type copper deposits also showed relatively concentrated lower CPEI values. From this analysis, it is evidenced that the S layer represents the most significant obstacle to the development potential of copper resources on the QXP. Copper deposits dominated or partially dominated by the S obstacle tend to a lower potential compared to those dominated by the P and R obstacles. This suggests that the challenges posed by the S layer are primarily geological and intrinsic to the deposits themselves. While the P and R layers, which relate to external pressure and socio-economic response, respectively, are less restrictive for high-potential deposits. This suggests that efforts to enhance the development potential of copper resources on the QXP should focus on addressing the specific challenges associated with the S layer. This might involve improving exploration technologies, conducting more detailed geological surveys, and possibly re-evaluating the resource potential with advanced geological understanding. Additionally, for deposits of P and R dominated obstacle types, there may be opportunities to optimize development through infrastructure improvements, policy adjustments, and the adoption of innovative mining technologies.

Fig. 8
figure 8

Scatter plot showing the relationship between CPEI and obstacle type of copper deposits on the QXP.

Full size image

The exploitation of copper resources on the QXP is a complex endeavor, fraught with challenges such as the imperative to protect the delicate ecological environment, the constraints posed by the region’s rugged terrain and transportation limitations, and the scarcity of water and electricity resources54,55. Yet, it is also a landscape of opportunity, with favorable conditions for mineral formation, advancements in exploration and mining technologies, supportive policies, and the promise of sustainable, green development14,56. The balance of these challenges and opportunities is intricately tied to the unique geological, environmental, economic, and regulatory contexts of the QXP. The development potential of copper deposits on the QXP is confronted by four main challenges. (1) First and foremost is the substantial pressure of environmental conservation. The plateau has a delicate ecosystem that must be protected. Mining activities must be done carefully to avoid irreversible ecological and geological damages. (2) The lack of infrastructure presents a formidable obstacle. The rugged terrain and inadequate transport network make building the needed infrastructure very costly, which slows down exploitation and the movement of resources. (3) There are technical limitations. The harsh conditions of high altitude and low oxygen levels impose constraints on traditional mining techniques, and the absence of efficient, eco-friendly technologies further impedes progress. (4) There are stringent legal and policy constraints. The exploitation of copper resources is subject to rigorous regulatory oversight, with environmental regulations and mineral resource management policies setting high thresholds for investors and developers.

Despite these challenges, the QXP holds significant potential for the exploitation of large copper deposits, particularly in the south-central Xizang, eastern Xizang, and northwestern Yunnan. Although these areas are remote, they offer the potential for economic synergy with neighboring regions. Looking ahead, the development strategy in these regions should prioritize the sustainable supply of basic resources, safeguard environmental quality, enhance water conservancy infrastructure, optimize the electrical grid, and extend the reach of power supply. It should also increase investment in environmental protection to improve living conditions. Efforts to bolster economic growth and environmental stewardship should be intensified, with a focus on refining the industrial structure and environmental standards, enhancing public infrastructure, accelerating urban development, and refining policies to foster optimal growth. Furthermore, the geological exploration and mineral resource assessment on the QXP provide crucial scientific insights for the prospective exploration and exploitation of copper resources. Yet, the region’s severe natural conditions and the demanding nature of geological operations lead to significant challenges to the mineral resource exploration and evaluation. Future research should deepen the understanding of the metallogenic mechanism of the QXP, strengthen the geological investigation and mineral exploration and evaluation, in order to fully tap the potential of mineral resources in the QXP.

Concurrently, the QXP’s copper resource development potential is poised for growth, due to its abundant resources and substantial economic potential. Advances in geological exploration technologies have contributed to the discovery of new deposits. The government has extended considerable policy support for economic and environmental initiatives in the region. The rapid evolution of mining technology, especially in terms of environmental sustainability and resource efficiency57,58, has provided innovative solutions for mining operations on the plateau. Moreover, the growing global demand for copper and polymetallic minerals59,60,61,62 positions the QXP to attract domestic and international investment, catalyzing further regional economic development.

Limitations and future research

Although the PSR framework adopted in this study provides a practical multidimensional analytical approach for copper ore resource potential assessment, its application is not without limitations. The variation in data quality and temporal scales significantly impacts the results. The geological data used in this study span different periods, ranging from 2012 to 2024. It limits the accuracy and timeliness of the model. For instance, the potential of copper ore resources is often influenced by cyclical economic fluctuations and advancements in mining technologies. Therefore, long-term datasets may fail to reflect the real-time dynamics of mineral resource changes accurately. Furthermore, data at different spatial scales (such as mine-level, county-level, and city-level data) may not align during integration, affecting the model’s spatial predictive capability.It is important to note that any static evaluation has inherent limitations preventing it from fully capturing the dynamic changes in mineral resource development. In practice, mineral resource exploitation often involves complex interactions between changes in the ecological environment, socioeconomic impacts, and other factors. Therefore, future research must consider exploring dynamic PSR models or introducing system dynamics approaches. These approaches can better capture the multiple interacting dynamics involved in mineral resource development, enhancing the PSR framework’s effectiveness. Nevertheless, the PSR framework remains an effective tool for assessing the potential of copper ore resources. With the ongoing advancements in data collection technologies and spatial analysis techniques, future research could refine the spatial resolution and temporal consistency of data, further incorporating additional environmental and socioeconomic factors to optimize the PSR model’s application. Combining other data analysis techniques, such as machine learning and big data analytics, will provide more precise and scientifically grounded decision support for the sustainable development of mineral resources.

Currently, any development and construction activities on the QXP must strictly prioritize environmental protection. Green mining imposes stringent requirements on the exploitation of mineral resources, largely preventing ecological damage. Thus, this study discusses the potential availability of copper ore resources, without including specific mining-related hazards such as acid mine drainage and heavy metal pollution in the PSR framework. We acknowledge that mining activities can have significant environmental consequences. Future studies should consider the impact of mining on habitat quality to provide a more comprehensive assessment of environmental responses. Additionally, both open-pit and underground mining methods should also be taken into account. Open-pit mining is cost-effective but causes significant environmental disturbance, potentially leading to acid mine drainage. Underground mining has a smaller environmental impact but requires higher investment and is more complex, with risks related to groundwater contamination. Therefore, incorporating mining environmental risks into the research framework can lead to a more comprehensive evaluation of copper mine development.

Conclusion

This study comprehensively integrates environmental, geological, and socio-economic indexes to evaluates the development potential of copper deposits on the QXP based on PSR framework. The findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in development potential, with infrastructure deficiencies and ecological fragility posing major pressures, particularly in central and western Xizang, eastern Qinghai and southwestern Xinjiang. High-potential copper deposits are primarily concentrated in the Gangdese-Nyainqentanglha and Sanjiang metallogenic provinces, where favorable geological conditions are present, though current exploration technologies limit the full realization of this potential. The economic structure and policy frameworks are important in determining the feasibility of copper deposit exploitation, with high response scores in central Xizang and northwestern Qinghai, indicating a conducive environment for sustainable mining practices. The CEPI indicates that only 10% of the copper deposits exhibit high development potential, mainly located in central and eastern Xizang and northwestern Yunnan, characterized by high-quality copper resources and robust infrastructure, making them ideal for sustainable copper extraction. The predominant obstacle type is balance type, suggesting that many deposits face challenges across all layers, especially in central Xizang and southwestern Xinjiang, where development is limited by inadequate infrastructure and unfavorable geological conditions. Future copper resource development should focus on enhancing resource management systems, advancing exploration technologies, and strengthening green development policies to balance economic growth with environmental protection, ensuring the sustainable and environmentally responsible utilization of copper resources.