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Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic
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  • Published: 07 April 2026

Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Frank W. Heiland1,2,3,5,
  • Jennifer Brite3,4 &
  • Deborah Balk1,2,3 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Health policy
  • Outcomes research
  • Respiratory tract diseases
  • Risk factors
  • Viral infection

Abstract

This study presents new evidence on the temporal and spatial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among especially vulnerable New Yorkers. Using burial records from Hart Island—the City’s potter’s field—we study the distribution of unclaimed deaths over time and across boroughs in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels. We show that the Hart Island deaths began deviating from their historical pattern in early March 2020 and peaked five weeks later at 22 deaths for every death in the same week in 2019 (20:1 adjusted). COVID-19 excess death rates were more than twice as high in the Bronx compared to other boroughs. Citywide, we estimate that 10% of all COVID-related excess deaths during the initial outbreak (March–August 2020) were unclaimed. These findings suggest the pandemic greatly magnified existing inequalities in the City and, more broadly, illustrate the especially devastating impact of COVID-19 on economically and socially vulnerable populations.

Data availability

The original Hart Island records can be accessed via a searchable online database maintained by the City of New York. The cleaned burial records analyzed in this paper are available as a STATA dta file in the figshare repository, https//doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30087259. This file was also made available to the editors and reviewers as part of the submission. In addition, daily death data for the city of New York (including both those who were claimed and unclaimed) were provided by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) Bureau of Vital Statistics. These data can only be accessed by authorized users, determined via an agreement between CUNY and DOHMH.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support through NIH R03 AI166809-01. We thank Emanuel Agú for excellent research assistance. We also thank the Office of the Richmond County Public Administrator for providing valuable background information. Lastly, we acknowledge the feedback of the three anonymous reviewers.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Baruch College, New York, USA

    Frank W. Heiland & Deborah Balk

  2. CUNY Graduate Center, New York, USA

    Frank W. Heiland & Deborah Balk

  3. CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, USA

    Frank W. Heiland, Jennifer Brite & Deborah Balk

  4. Hunter College, New York, USA

    Jennifer Brite

  5. Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research; Faculty, The Graduate Center (Programs in Economics & Demography), City University of New York, 1 Bernard Baruch Way, D-901, New York, NY, 10010, USA

    Frank W. Heiland

Authors
  1. Frank W. Heiland
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  2. Jennifer Brite
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Contributions

Frank Heiland (F.H.) conceptualized the research and supervised the research assistant. F.H. and Jennifer Brite (J.B.) collected and prepared the data for analysis. F.H., J.B., and Deborah Balk (D.B.) wrote the main manuscript text and F.H. prepared Figs. 1 and 2; Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4, and the appendix. D.B. prepared box 1. All authors reviewed the analysis and the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Frank W. Heiland.

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Heiland, F.W., Brite, J. & Balk, D. Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41219-6

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  • Received: 05 January 2025

  • Accepted: 18 February 2026

  • Published: 07 April 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41219-6

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Keywords

  • Excess mortality
  • COVID-19
  • Unclaimed death
  • New York city
  • Disadvantaged populations
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