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Spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK rapeseed cropping over 1961–2020
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  • Published: 05 March 2026

Spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK rapeseed cropping over 1961–2020

  • Biao Hu1,
  • Mark E. J. Cutler1 &
  • Alexandra C. Morel1 

Scientific Reports , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Climate sciences
  • Ecology
  • Environmental sciences
  • Plant sciences

Abstract

Most temperature stress research in oil crops has focused on either heat or cold stress with analyses of the effects of both in combination rare. For the UK, neither the spatiotemporal hot spots of temperature stressed arable areas nor the comparative trends of heat and cold stresses for rapeseed cropping under climate change are understood. This study investigated the spatiotemporal heat and cold stresses for UK rapeseed over 1961–2020, and quantified the normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) induced by heat stress during flowering. Stress indices including a literature derived heat stress index (fHS), cold degree days (CDD), with historical land cover and crop productivity data were used to comparatively study both stresses and to estimate fRPL. Results showed increasing fHS, particularly during flowering (April to May) and main yield-forming reproductive stages (spanning flowering through pod and seed development from April to July) over the study period, with fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. The decreasing values of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during the flowering, vegetative (September to November) and reproductive stages. Notably, this study observed that annually at the UK level heat stress was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress was decreasing during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with significant differences between decades and regions, suggested an increasing production loss. These results presented a potentially trend of increasing heat stress impacts on future rapeseed production and further work is required to understand the specific impacts and mitigation strategies for addressing UK food security.

Data availability

All used datasets in this study are publicly available. The temperature dataset used could be accessed from https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-hadobs/data/insitu/MOHC/HadOBS/HadUK-Grid/v1.2.0.ceda/1km53. Rapeseed attainable yield (Yattainable) in global grids can be accessed from GAEZ v4 portal: https://gaez.fao.org/pages/data-access-download55. The crop suitability index in classes for rapeseed for current cropland in grid cell of the period 1961-1990 was obtained from the website https://gaez-services.fao.org/apps/theme-4/. The share of cultivated land can be accessed from GAEZ v3 platform (https://www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at/)56. The shapefiles of the UK nations and England regions can be obtained from: https://geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/40,41. Land cover map 1990 of the UK can be retrieved from Digimap at https://digimap.edina.ac.uk/42. Other data will be made available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the University of Dundee and China Scholarship Council Joint Scholarship program. The authors want to knowledge the assistance from proof-readers and editors.

Funding

This work was supported by University of Dundee and China Scholarship Council Joint Scholarship program.

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  1. Division of Energy, Environment & Society, School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, University of Dundee, Nethergate, Dundee, DD1 4HN, UK

    Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler & Alexandra C. Morel

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  1. Biao Hu
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Contributions

BH, ACM, and MEJC developed the research idea and frameworks. BH identified the temperature thresholds and developed temperature stress indices. BH and ACM developed the R codes for processing the downloaded temperature dataset by using temperature stress indices. BH conducted data collection/curation/analysis and wrote the original paper. ACM and MEJC provided guidance and supervision for the project. All authors contributed to revising the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Biao Hu or Alexandra C. Morel.

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Hu, B., Cutler, M.E.J. & Morel, A.C. Spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK rapeseed cropping over 1961–2020. Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41957-7

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  • Received: 03 November 2025

  • Accepted: 24 February 2026

  • Published: 05 March 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41957-7

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Keywords

  • Rapeseed
  • Heat stress
  • Cold stress
  • Spatiotemporal analysis
  • Production loss index
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