Fig. 7: Simulated infection dynamics in NMBM with an anticipated 30-day-lockdown from 26 August 2020 on.

All lockdown measures end after 30 days on 25 September 2020. The six panels refer to the different policy scenarios ranging from level 5 (very strict lockdown) to level 1 (no lockdown measures). The grey lines represent the case numbers of 100 simulations with various seeds for each policy scenario. The coloured lines denote the mean total number of active infections (orange) and the mean cumulative number of recovered infections (green), respectively. The confidence intervals are computed at a 50% and an 80% level. The vertical lines denote the dates of earlier governmental lockdown measures (black, dotted) and the simulated measures of 30 days (red, dashed). On 1 June 2020, the lockdown measures were relaxed from level 4 to level 3. On 27 July 2020, lockdown level 3 remained active, but schools were closed again and several other restrictions were in placed such as alcohol selling bans (referred to as lockdown level 3 (strict)).