Table 1 Global convergence of RSA, CRL and DRL.

From: Global diffusion of three road safety policies, 1964–2015

 

RSA (Model 1)

RSA (Model 2)

CRL (Model 3)

CRL (Model 4)

DRL (Model 5)

DRL (Model 6)

Global convergence

 Geneva Convention on Road Traffic

1.24 (0.22)

1.17 (0.22)

1.40* (0.27)

(p = 0.087)

1.10 (0.20)

1.69 (0.94)

1.75 (0.77)

 AAUTPV

1.05 (0.35)

0.95 (0.30)

3.38*** (1.07)

(p < 0.001)

3.13*** (0.99)

(p < 0.001)

3.98*** (1.73)

(p < 0.001)

4.32** (2.44)

(p = 0.010)

Regional convergence

 Creation of the European Transport Safety Council

–

–

–

–

1.24 (1.19)

1.25 (1.10)

Unintended convergence

 Population (ln)

1.14** (0.07

(p = 0.017)

1.15* (0.08)

(p = 0.05)

1.02 (0.08)

1.03 (0.09)

0.69** (0.12)

(p < 0.001)

0.61*** (0.09)

(p = 0.002)

 Political violence

–

0.90* (0.05)

(p = 0.088)

–

0.77** (0.09)

(p = 0.031)

–

–

 Average yearly total number of hours of bright sunshine

–

–

–

–

0.84 (0.36)

0.89 (0.33)

Mechanisms of diffusion

 Imitation/learning

 World Health Organization road safety global campaign

3.44*** (0.93)

(p < 0.001)

3.61*** (0.82)

(p < 0.001)

2.64*** (0.66)

( p< 0.001)

2.54** (2.66)

(p = 0.001)

5.28*** (2.70)

(p= 0.001)

3.78** (1.95)

(p= 0.010)

 Existence of road safety NGOs

1.49** (0.28)

(p = 0.046)

1.37* (0.26)

(p = 0.085)

1.25 (0.25)

1.27 (0.27)

0.59 (0.20)

0.56* (0.17)

(p = 0.063)

Coercion or Competition (ref. ‘Importer vehicle country’)a

 Importer-exporter vehicle country

1.99* (0.73)

(p =  0.058)

1.79* (0.61)

(p = 0.070)

–

–

6.58** (6.53)

(p = 0.028)

5.80* (5.74)

(p = 0.075)

 Exporter-importer vehicle country

–

–

–

–

4.75 (5.80)

4.55 (5.54)

 Exporter vehicle country

2.34 (1.39)

2.39* (1.20)

(p = 0.064)

–

–

8.73** (9.24)

(p = 0.047)

7.80* (8.21)

(p = 0.075)

Controls

 GDP per capita (ln)

1.07 (0.13)

1.10 (0.13)

1.49*** (0.17)

(p = 0.001)

1.49*** (0.15)

(p = 0.001)

1.44 (0.29)

1.35 (0.28)

 Urbanization

0.99 (0.00)

0.99** (0.00)

(p = 0.026)

1.01 (0.00)

1.00 (0.00)

1.00 (0.00)

1.01 (0.00)

 RSA

–

–

–

1.69* (0.45)

(p = 0.069)

–

3.15*** (0.92)

(p < 0.001)

 Time (ρ)

1.44 (0.45)

1.35 (0.46)

1.38* (0.31)

(p = 0.091)

1.28 (0.24)

0.75* (0.13)

(p = 0.088)

0.78 (0.14)

 Number of countries

167

148

171

149

139

139

 Number of adoptions

108

103

90

80

35

35

 Observations

5067

4428

4968

4384

4847

4847

 Log likehood

−108.96***

(p < 0.001)

−99.04***

(p < 0.001)

−101.85***

(p < 0.001)

−87.51***

(p < 0.001)

−48.20***

(p < 0.001)

−44.35***

(p < 0.001)

 df

10

11

10

12

15

16

  1. RSA road safety agency, CRL child restraint legislation, DRL daytime running lights, LAC Latin America and the Caribbean, AAUTPV agreement concerning the adoption of uniform technical prescriptions for wheeled vehicles, equipment and parts, which can be fitted and/or be used on wheeled vehicles and the conditions for reciprocal recognition of approvals granted on the basis of these prescriptions. Robust standard errors in parentheses.
  2. ***significant at 1%; **significant at 5%; * significant at 10%.
  3. All models adjusted for clustering at the region level.
  4. aTo facilitate the interpretation of the ‘Type of importer-exporter vehicle country’ variable we subdivided the ‘Exporter-importer vehicle country’ group into two: ‘Importer-exporter vehicle country’ and ‘Exporter-importer vehicle country.’ The latter represented countries in which their vehicle importation was 10 times higher than their vehicle exportation, and the former, in which country’s importation was lower than 10 times higher than their vehicle exportation.
  5. I have provided the full p value for each bold estimator.
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