Table 3 Present value of government obligation when reserve funds are depleted.
Present value of net cash flow of total public pension when RER < 0 | Present value of minimum reserve fund when RER < 0 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Discount rate | Avg. (Std.) | Percentage of outstanding JGBs | Percentage of GDP | Avg. (std.) | Percentage of outstanding JGBs | Percentage of GDP | |
0.19% | Average 10 years JGB yield | −10.8 | 1.0% | 1.9% | −65.3 | 6.4% | 11.4% |
(67.1) | (89.1) | ||||||
0.49% | Expected return of domestic bonds | −12.3 | 1.2% | 2.1% | −53.3 | 5.2% | 9.3% |
(55.4) | (70.5) | ||||||
0.80% | Inflation rate | −13.0 | 1.3% | 2.3% | −43.3 | 4.2% | 7.6% |
(46.0) | (55.7) | ||||||
2.82% | Expected return of investments | −9.5 | 0.9% | 1.7% | −11.8 | 1.1% | 2.1% |
(17.6) | (14.3) | ||||||
Number of samples when RER < 0 | 1799 | ||||||
Percentage of total number of simulations | 20.0% | ||||||
