Table 4 Robustness checks.

From: Investment risk-taking and benefit adequacy under automatic balancing mechanism in the Japanese public pension system

Year

Variable

Government verification

Percentile

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Stock weight = 50%

Inv. return only

Wage rate only

Inflation only

Volatility doubled

Volatility halved

Foreign 100%

Domestic 100%

2050

RR

 

90th percentile

52.2

52.0

49.7

48.0

48.9

50.6

56.4

49.4

47.1

50th percentile

46.7

45.8

48.1

47.4

44.7

47.7

46.6

46.2

 

10th percentile

44.6

44.2

47.1

46.8

43.0

46.0

44.2

44.4

RER

 

90th percentile

7.7

7.6

4.4

4.3

10.7

5.9

10.2

6.7

4.0

50th percentile

3.1

3.1

4.0

4.0

1.1

3.7

3.0

2.7

 

10th percentile

0.7

0.9

3.4

3.7

−0.6

2.1

0.3

0.6

2075

RR

 

90th percentile

52.2

52.0

45.8

45.5

46.2

50.0

56.4

47.7

44.5

50th percentile

40.2

40.0

44.4

44.6

37.4

43.0

39.9

39.2

 

10th percentile

37.3

37.1

41.8

43.7

35.6

39.0

36.9

37.1

RER

 

90th percentile

7.2

7.0

3.8

3.8

9.1

5.2

10.6

5.8

3.4

50th percentile

2.1

2.2

3.3

3.4

0.3

3.0

1.9

1.6

 

10th percentile

−0.4

−0.0

2.5

3.1

−1.8

1.0

−0.8

−0.5

2100

RR

 

90th percentile

52.2

52.0

45.8

45.5

46.1

50.0

56.4

47.7

44.5

50th percentile

39.3

39.7

44.4

44.6

35.9

42.9

38.6

38.0

 

10th percentile

32.6

32.9

41.0

43.7

31.1

34.9

32.1

32.4

RER

 

90th percentile

3.9

3.8

2.5

2.5

4.3

3.1

6.4

3.2

2.2

50th percentile

1.4

1.5

2.1

2.2

0.6

2.0

1.3

1.2

 

10th percentile

−0.3

0.1

1.7

2.0

−1.0

0.7

−0.7

−0.3

2115

RR

 

90th percentile

52.2

52.0

45.8

45.5

46.1

50.0

56.4

47.7

44.5

50th percentile

39.3

39.7

44.4

44.6

35.8

42.9

38.6

38.0

 

10th percentile

30.2

30.8

41.0

43.7

28.9

33.2

29.7

30.1

RER

 

90th percentile

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.1

1.0

1.0

50th percentile

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

 

10th percentile

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.5

1.0

0.3

0.8

  1. Notes: RR and RER represent the replacement rate and reserve-to-expenditure ratio, respectively. Stock weight = 50 redisplays the results in Panel A of Table 2 for stock weight = 50%. Inv. return only, wage only, and inflation only represent that the stochastic variable is only investment return, wage growth rate, and inflation, respectively. Foreign 100% and domestic 100% represent that investments are only in foreign and domestic assets, respectively. All simulations are under economic assumption 5 and stock weight = 50%.
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