Table 5 Top 15 VIM values for 314 variables used to predict change to Armin Laschet (sorted for 1).
Variable name | all | 0 | 1 | Variable explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
pre.chancellor.al | 0.0483623 | 0.0769063 | 0.6543832 | Pre-debate chancellor preference: Armin Laschet |
pre.victor | 0.1208897 | 0.3278918 | 0.2989726 | Pre-victor expectation |
V288 | 0.0107294 | 0.0154166 | 0.1613828 | Debate moment Laschet addressing the voters directly about trust and making Germany strong (Speaker: AL) |
pre.al.cred | 0.0039775 | −0.0020095 | 0.1359525 | Pre-debate credibility evaluation: Armin Laschet |
V157 | 0.0053321 | 0.0116520 | 0.0408830 | Debate moment Laschet accusing Baerbock of using mostly bans to promote environmental policy (AL) |
V42 | 0.0021305 | 0.0026482 | 0.0361244 | Debate moment Laschet attacks Scholz for his handling of the Wirecard Scandal (AL) |
V191 | 0.0017999 | 0.0027157 | 0.0257885 | Debate moment with dispute between Laschet and Scholz about who is responsible for reacting too late to energy security and climate change questions. (AL) |
pre.chancellor.ab | 0.0023043 | 0.0047823 | 0.0201601 | Pre-debate chancellor preference: Annalena Baerbock |
pre.ab.comp | 0.0006694 | 0.0001350 | 0.0182157 | Pre-debate competence evaluation: Annalena Baerbock |
pre.ab.symp | 0.0004941 | −0.0002596 | 0.0169877 | Pre-debate sympathy evaluation: Annalena Baerbock |
V153 | 0.0004222 | −0.0003635 | 0.0159131 | Debate moment reflection that the exit from nuclear energy first and exit from coal energy second was the wrong order (AL) |
pre.al.comp | 0.0008918 | 0.0011943 | 0.0142758 | Pre-debate competence evaluation: Armin Laschet |
V273 | 0.0016348 | 0.0035621 | 0.0126384 | Debate moment Laschet emphasizes that tax hikes destroy growth (AL) |
pre.al.lead | 0.0005625 | 0.0005400 | 0.0111034 | Pre-debate good leadership evaluation: Armin Laschet |
V262 | 0.0003452 | 0.0000571 | 0.0095172 | Debate moment emphasizing that there should be an orderly immigration process (AL) |
