Table 5 Long-run and short-run effects, with asymmetric responses, of the population on per capita GDP.
Variables | Coefficient | Standard error | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|
Long-run coefficients | |||
\(POP_{i,t}^ +\) | 0.0177** | 0.0054 | 0.001 |
\(POP_{i,t}^ -\) | 0.0085* | 0.0039 | 0.028 |
Short-run coefficients | |||
ΔGDPt-1 | −0.2475 | 0.1888 | 0.190 |
ΔGDPt-2 | 1.3506** | 0.0494 | < 0.001 |
ΔGDPt-3 | −0.8493** | 0.0544 | < 0.001 |
ΔGDPt-4 | 0.2018** | 0.0188 | < 0.001 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t}^ +\) | 0.0133** | 0.0035 | < 0.001 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 1}^ +\) | −0.0443* | 0.0174 | 0.011 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 2}^ +\) | 0.0447 | 0.0277 | 0.107 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 3}^ +\) | −0.0107 | 0.0221 | 0.628 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 4}^ +\) | −0.0134 | 0.0125 | 0.285 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 5}^ +\) | 0.0058 | 0.0036 | 0.103 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t}^ -\) | 0.000024 | 0.0023 | 0.992 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 1}^ -\) | −0.1517 | 0.1694 | 0.370 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 2}^ -\) | 0.0390 | 0.0552 | 0.479 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 3}^ -\) | −0.0617 | 0.0755 | 0.414 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 4}^ -\) | 0.0397 | 0.0491 | 0.418 |
\({\Delta}POP_{i,t - 5}^ -\) | −0.0139 | 0.0161 | 0.387 |
Intercept | −74336.44** | 28874.13 | 0.010 |
Joint Hausman test | 1.35 | 0.508 | |
Error correction coefficient (φ) | −0.2934** | 0.0301 | < 0.0001 |
Dynamic Specification: ARDL (4, 5, 5) Model selection method: Akaike information criterion (AIC) Maximum likelihood method, dependent variable lags: 4 (automatic selection), Dynamic regressors (5 lags, automatic selection) | |||
Estimator | Pooled Mean Group (PMG) controlling for country-fixed effects | ||
No. of countries | 19 | ||
Period | 1990–2021 (32 time periods) | ||
No. of observations | 608 | ||
