Table 1 Uncertainty types and addressability, and two general orientations to their use.
From: Necessary and unnecessary uncertainty in academic sciences
Main types of uncertainty | Addressability of uncertainty | A humanities orientation | A social sciences orientation |
|---|---|---|---|
Unknown Unknowns = unknown factors affecting a decision that may become known after the outcome is known; by definition, every such factor’s value is also unknown prior to the decision; these produce surprise | Each of these types is untreatable, by definition, given some important factor of a focal decision-problem (e.g., choices, outcomes, probabilities, goals) remains unknown when the decision must be made. We do not know how to solve/optimize these problems as given. We can choose to bear the uncertainty and hope to be lucky with the outcome. | • subjects consider uncertainty as a tool • using its unpredictable output to inspire and initiate creative processes or to find new meanings and possible new paths given newly identified factors that had been unknown • using its output to learn from the surprises with an open mind • using its process to entertain—by helping an audience delight in positive surprise (e.g., in art, music, games, theater) • using the untreatability to critique the plan-and-control fallacies of the sciences | |
Known Unknowns with Unknowable Values = the factor is identifiable, but its value cannot be made known prior to a decision being made (e.g., the level value of the factor of a new product’s demand;); what is needed to be known is understood but so is the fact that it cannot be known now | • subjects consider uncertainty as a weapon—to be defended against or to wield, with mitigation or control as the goals • focusing on treating, controlling or adapting to uncertainties or outcomes faster, better, and cheaper, or selling the idea of that to show leadership • when controllable, using it to advantage, to exploit others (e.g., customers, rivals, regulators) • when not controllable, bearing the uncertainty as a means to beat others who don’t (e.g., as an entrant betting on an unproven technology up against better-endowed incumbents) • approaching it with empirical and mathematical tools when knowable | ||
Known Unknowns with Knowable Values = the factor is identifiable, and its value can be made known prior to a decision being made (e.g., the firm has the time and means to experiment and learn the expected level of demand for its new product prior to building its production plant); these define preventable surprises | By definition, this type of uncertainty is treatable. Common approaches to addressing this uncertainty include learning, search, diversification, insurance, and influence through marketing or control. |
